NCAAB

Wichita State Is One of the Most Underseeded NCAA Tournament Teams Ever

The NCAA Tournament's selection committee will never get everything right, because "right" is subjective.

But, man, they seemed to undersell this year's Wichita State team, didn't they?

If you thought the Shockers deserved a higher seed, you're not alone. Our numbers actually have them as the 10th-best team in all of college basketball with a nERD -- the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average squad on a neutral court -- of 17.27. For reference, they're one spot behind Virginia, and one spot ahead of -- wait for it -- Duke.

Want to get a huge leg up on your March Madness pool? Subscribe to numberFire and get instant access to power rankings, bracket picks, game simulators, and tons of awesome expert advice to help you make the right decision.

Even better, we're offering our subscriptions at $19 over the first month when you use the promo code BRACKET.

Find Out More


Since 2000, the average nERD rating for a 10 seed has been 10.30. In other words, Wichita State is roughly seven points better per game than the ordinary 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

And that, you guys, is a massive difference. In fact, it's the second-largest discrepancy our numbers have seen over this time.

School Year nERD Seed Seed Average nERD Difference
Utah State 2005 11.83 14 4.84 6.99
Wichita St. 2017 17.27 10 10.30 6.97
Belmont 2012 11.38 14 4.84 6.54
Lamar 2012 4.16 16 -2.28 6.44
Duke 2001 25.10 1 18.85 6.25
Oral Roberts 2006 3.95 16 -2.28 6.23
NC Asheville 2012 3.66 16 -2.28 5.94
Belmont 2011 12.15 13 6.23 5.92
East Tennessee State 2009 3.56 16 -2.28 5.84
Tulsa 2000 17.24 7 11.50 5.74
Winthrop 2006 7.12 15 1.40 5.72
Portland State 2008 3.19 16 -2.28 5.47
Louisville 2014 19.33 4 14.08 5.25
Florida 2000 18.16 5 13.02 5.14
Florida 2013 19.52 3 14.48 5.04
Cincinnati 2000 21.14 2 16.11 5.03
Wichita State 2016 14.56 11 9.53 5.03
Arizona 2001 21.10 2 16.11 4.99
Vermont 2012 2.59 16 -2.28 4.87
Tennessee 2014 14.35 11 9.53 4.82


First off, it wouldn't be right to ignore the fact that Duke's championship team in 2001 is listed as the fifth-most underrated team -- seed-wise -- since 2000. As a freaking 1 seed. Whew.

But, as you can see, only the 2005 Utah State Aggies had a larger difference between their nERD and the typical nERD of their particular seed. In their case, they had an 11.83 nERD when the typical 14 seed's nERD has been 4.84.

The problem for Wichita State is that, with a Round 1 victory, they'll face Kentucky in Round 2. Our numbers do favor the Wildcats, but it should be, hypothetically, a much closer contest than their seeds suggest.