The Hottest and Coldest Teams Entering the 2023 NCAA Tournament
Although the men's NCAA basketball schedule isn't as voluminous as the NBA's calendar, it's still a long season that allows for ebbs and flows in terms of team success.
Win sequencing can truly impact seeding and at-large bids, which is why we -- and the selection committee -- take note of surging and struggling teams during the weeks leading into the NCAA Tournament and consider exercising caution for teams that looked better early in the season before cooling off.
Based on recent games, which teams in the field of 68 are playing their best -- and maybe their worst -- basketball of the season?
To find out, I'm going to use my adjusted point differential metric for teams, which adjusts point differentials for opponent strength faced.
Here is how each of the 68 NCAA Tournament teams stacks up over their final 10 games.
| Team | Seed | Region | Past 10 |
PPG | PPA | Raw +/- |
Adj. +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | 3 | W | 9-1 | 90.1 | 72.2 | 17.9 | 24.5 |
| Texas | 2 | M | 7-3 | 74.0 | 64.9 | 9.1 | 22.8 |
| Alabama | 1 | S | 8-2 | 78.5 | 68.0 | 10.5 | 21.7 |
| UCLA | 2 | W | 9-1 | 73.4 | 61.7 | 11.7 | 21.1 |
| Houston | 1 | M | 9-1 | 74.1 | 58.7 | 15.4 | 20.1 |
| Memphis | 8 | E | 8-2 | 76.9 | 68.7 | 8.2 | 19.4 |
| Kansas | 1 | W | 8-2 | 72.2 | 66.7 | 5.5 | 19.1 |
| Arizona | 2 | S | 7-3 | 81.2 | 73.4 | 7.8 | 19.1 |
| Connecticut | 4 | W | 8-2 | 75.4 | 65.4 | 10.0 | 18.8 |
| Utah St. | 10 | S | 8-3 | 75.5 | 66.9 | 8.5 | 17.4 |
| Duke | 5 | E | 9-1 | 74.0 | 63.5 | 10.5 | 17.0 |
| Baylor | 3 | S | 6-4 | 74.3 | 72.2 | 2.1 | 16.5 |
| Florida Atlantic | 9 | E | 9-1 | 83.1 | 67.3 | 15.8 | 15.7 |
| Arkansas | 8 | W | 4-6 | 74.5 | 72.4 | 2.1 | 15.5 |
| Texas A&M | 7 | M | 8-2 | 68.8 | 65.0 | 3.8 | 15.4 |
| Kentucky | 6 | E | 6-4 | 74.5 | 70.7 | 3.8 | 15.4 |
| Purdue | 1 | E | 7-3 | 70.8 | 66.7 | 4.1 | 14.8 |
| Xavier | 3 | M | 6-4 | 75.6 | 69.4 | 6.2 | 14.8 |
| College of Charleston | 12 | S | 10-0 | 83.6 | 63.6 | 20.0 | 14.6 |
| Tennessee | 4 | E | 4-6 | 70.6 | 66.0 | 4.6 | 14.5 |
| Kansas St. | 3 | E | 5-5 | 71.8 | 70.6 | 1.2 | 14.4 |
| Penn St. | 10 | M | 8-2 | 72.1 | 69.0 | 3.1 | 14.4 |
| Marquette | 2 | E | 9-1 | 76.8 | 72.4 | 4.4 | 14.3 |
| Creighton | 6 | S | 6-4 | 76.2 | 71.3 | 4.9 | 14.2 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 12 | W | 9-1 | 73.6 | 62.0 | 11.6 | 14.2 |
| Drake | 12 | M | 9-1 | 77.0 | 62.8 | 14.2 | 13.9 |
| San Diego St. | 5 | S | 9-1 | 65.7 | 58.7 | 7.0 | 13.3 |
| Southern California | 10 | E | 6-4 | 74.7 | 69.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
| Auburn | 9 | M | 3-7 | 71.3 | 72.5 | -1.2 | 13.3 |
| West Virginia | 9 | S | 5-5 | 73.4 | 75.5 | -2.1 | 13.2 |
| Northwestern | 10 | W | 6-4 | 64.7 | 62.4 | 2.3 | 12.8 |
| Miami FL | 5 | M | 8-2 | 81.8 | 76.5 | 5.3 | 12.6 |
| Texas Christian | 6 | W | 4-6 | 70.4 | 72.4 | -2.0 | 12.3 |
| Michigan St. | 7 | E | 5-5 | 72.1 | 71.1 | 1.0 | 12.3 |
| Maryland | 8 | S | 5-5 | 68.5 | 64.6 | 3.9 | 12.0 |
| Iowa | 8 | M | 5-5 | 77.4 | 76.9 | 0.5 | 11.7 |
| Saint Mary's (CA) | 5 | W | 7-3 | 71.2 | 67.0 | 4.2 | 11.5 |
| Indiana | 4 | M | 6-4 | 69.1 | 70.4 | -1.3 | 11.1 |
| Missouri | 7 | S | 7-3 | 73.9 | 74.0 | -0.1 | 11.0 |
| Iona | 13 | W | 10-0 | 78.3 | 61.6 | 16.7 | 10.8 |
| Providence | 11 | E | 4-6 | 77.4 | 78.2 | -0.8 | 10.6 |
| Nevada | 11 | W | 6-4 | 70.8 | 67.2 | 3.6 | 10.0 |
| Illinois | 9 | W | 4-6 | 73.9 | 75.0 | -1.1 | 10.0 |
| Iowa St. | 6 | M | 3-7 | 63.4 | 66.6 | -3.2 | 9.7 |
| Kent St. | 13 | M | 9-1 | 80.3 | 69.5 | 10.8 | 9.5 |
| Mississippi St. | 11 | M | 6-4 | 66.8 | 66.2 | 0.6 | 9.1 |
| North Carolina St. | 11 | S | 5-5 | 74.2 | 73.1 | 1.1 | 8.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 11 | M | 6-4 | 81.3 | 76.2 | 5.1 | 8.5 |
| Oral Roberts | 12 | E | 10-0 | 81.8 | 69.2 | 12.6 | 8.5 |
| Vermont | 15 | E | 10-0 | 79.4 | 64.7 | 14.7 | 8.3 |
| Boise St. | 7 | W | 6-4 | 71.8 | 72.7 | -0.9 | 8.2 |
| Arizona St. | 11 | W | 6-4 | 67.9 | 69.5 | -1.6 | 8.1 |
| Virginia | 4 | S | 7-3 | 63.0 | 60.0 | 3.0 | 8.0 |
| Furman | 13 | S | 9-1 | 82.2 | 70.0 | 12.2 | 7.0 |
| Colgate | 15 | M | 9-1 | 80.5 | 66.6 | 13.9 | 6.7 |
| Louisiana Lafayette | 13 | E | 7-3 | 72.6 | 68.1 | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| Grand Canyon | 14 | W | 8-2 | 70.7 | 66.2 | 4.5 | 5.5 |
| UC Santa Barbara | 14 | S | 7-3 | 74.5 | 71.2 | 3.3 | 3.9 |
| Princeton | 15 | S | 7-3 | 76.5 | 73.8 | 2.7 | 3.7 |
| Kennesaw St. | 14 | M | 8-2 | 73.1 | 68.9 | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| Montana St. | 14 | E | 9-1 | 72.7 | 67.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 |
| NC Asheville | 15 | W | 9-1 | 74.4 | 67.3 | 7.1 | 1.7 |
| Northern Kentucky | 16 | M | 7-3 | 69.7 | 64.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 |
| Texas A&M Corpus Christi | 16 | S | 9-1 | 80.1 | 70.1 | 10.0 | 1.1 |
| Howard | 16 | W | 8-2 | 77.9 | 70.0 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| Texas Southern | 16 | E | 6-4 | 69.4 | 67.3 | 2.1 | -4.8 |
| Southeast Missouri St. | 16 | S | 6-4 | 79.6 | 78.0 | 1.6 | -7.4 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson | 16 | E | 5-5 | 76.1 | 72.4 | 3.7 | -10.1 |
| NCAA Tournament Averages |
478-203 | 74.5 | 68.7 | 5.7 | 11.1 |
Notables
Best Teams
We don't see the four 1 seeds at the top of the list, yet all are in the top 10.
Instead, it's the Gonzaga Bulldogs (3 seed, Midwest) at the very top. They're 9-1 with a tournament-best adjusted point differential of +24.5 over their past 10 games. Their lone loss in this span was a 78-70 road overtime loss to the Saint Mary's (CA) Gaels.
Next up, it's the Texas Longhorns (2 seed, Midwest), who are at a +22.8 opponent-adjusted point differential despite a 7-3 record over their past 10 games. This stretch includes a seven-point loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, a nine-point loss to the Baylor Bears (3 seed, South), and a two-point loss to the Texas Christian Horned Frogs (6 seed, West).
Then we get to the Alabama Crimson Tide (1 seed, South), the UCLA Bruins (2 seed, West), and the Houston Cougars (1 seed, Midwest) before seeing the Memphis Tigers (8 seed, East).
Memphis avenged a two-point loss to the Houston Cougars with a 10-point win over them in the American Athletic Conference Championship on Sunday -- while Houston was without star guard Marcus Sasser.
Others in the top 10:
- Kansas Jayhawks (1 seed, West)
- Arizona Wildcats (2 seed, West)
- Connecticut Huskies (4 seed, West)
- Utah State Aggies (10 seed, South)
Trending Teams
Which teams were better during their final 10 games than they were before the final stretch of the season?
These ones (among those with at least a 12 seed), sorted by differential in past-10 adjusted point differential and full-season adjusted point differential:
- Drake Bulldogs (12 seed, Midwest, +7.5)
- Gonzaga Bulldogs (3 seed, West, +7.3)
- Charleston Southern Buccaneers (12 seed, South, +7.1)
- Memphis Tigers (8 seed, East, +6.8)
- Virginia Commonwealth Rams (12 seed, Midwest, +5.9)
- Penn State Nittany Lions (10 seed, Midwest, +4.3)
- Duke Blue Devils (5 seed, East, +4.1)
- Utah State Aggies (10 seed, South, +3.9)
- Texas Longhorns (2 seed, Midwest, +3.5)
- Florida Atlantic Owls (9 seed, East, +3.0)
- Texas A&M Aggies (7 seed, Midwest, +2.7)
- Kentucky Wildcats (6 seed, East, +2.0)
Undefeated Teams
Which teams are 10-0 in their past 10?
These ones, sorted by adjusted point differential:
- College of Charleston Cougars (12 seed, South)
- Iona Gaels (13 seed, West)
- Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (12 seed, East)
- Vermont Catamounts (15 seed, East)
These teams have a 9-1 record in their past 10, sorted by adjusted point differential:
- Gonzaga Bulldogs (3 seed, West)
- UCLA Bruins (2 seed, West)
- Houston Cougars (1 seed, Midwest)
- Duke Blue Devils (5 seed, East)
- Florida Atlantic Owls (9 seed, East)
- Marquette Golden Eagles (2 seed, East)
- Virginia Commonwealth Rams (12 seed, Midwest)
- Drake Bulldogs (12 seed, Midwest)
- San Diego State Aztecs (5 seed, South)
- Kent State Golden Flashes (13 seed, Midwest)
- Furman Paladins (13 seed, South)
- Colgate Raiders (15 seed, Midwest)
- Montana State Bobcats (14 seed, East)
- North Carolina-Asheville Bulldogs (15 seed, West)
- Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders (16 seed, South)
Weakest Single-Digit Seeds
Which single-digit seeds have the lowest adjusted point differential in their past 10?
These ones, sorted by lowest adjusted point differential:
- Virginia Cavaliers (4 seed, South, +8.0)
- Boise State Broncos (7 seed, West, +8.2)
- Iowa State Cyclones (6 seed, Midwest, +9.7)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (9 seed, West, +10.0)
- Missouri Tigers (7 seed, South, +11.0)
- Indiana Hoosiers (4 seed, Midwest, +11.1)
- Saint Mary's (CA) Gaels (5 seed, West, +11.5)
- Iowa Hawkeyes (8 seed, Midwest, +11.7)
- Maryland Terrapins (8 seed, South, +12.0)
Reeling Teams
Which squads have the biggest negative differential between their past 10 differential and their early-season adjusted mark? This isn't to say these teams are bad -- just that they are not playing as strongly as they did during the early part of the season.
These ones, sorted by adjusted point differential:
- Tennessee Volunteers (4 seed, East, -8.4)
- Saint Mary's (CA) Gaels (5 seed, West, -7.1)
- Boise State Broncos (7 seed, West, -6.7)
- Iowa State Cyclones (6 seed, Midwest, -6.7)
- Virginia Cavaliers (4 seed, South, -6.1)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (9 seed, West, -6.0)
- Indiana Hoosiers (4 seed, Midwest, -4.9)
- North Carolina State Wolfpack (11 seed, South, -4.5)
- Texas Christian Horned Frogs (6 seed, West, -4.0)
- Purdue Boilermakers (1 seed, East, -3.8)
Losing/Non-Winning Teams
These teams are just 5-5 entering the Big Dance:
- Kansas State Wildcats (3 seed, East, +14.4)
- West Virginia Mountaineers (9 seed, South, +13.2)
- Michigan State Spartans (7 seed, East, +12.3)
- Maryland Terrapins (8 seed, South, +12.0)
- Iowa Hawkeyes (8 seed, Midwest, +11.7)
- North Carolina State Wolfpack (11 seed, South, +8.6)
- Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (16 seed, East, -10.1)
These teams are 4-6 entering the tournament:
- Arkansas Razorbacks (8 seed, West, +15.5)
- Tennessee Volunteers (4 seed, East, +14.5)
- Texas Christian Horned Frogs (6 seed, West, +12.3)
- Providence Friars (11 seed, East, +10.6)
- Illinois Fighting Illini (9 seed, West, +10.0)
There are also two teams that are just 3-7 over their past 10:
- Auburn Tigers (9 seed, Midwest, +13.3)
- Iowa State Cyclones (6 seed, Midwest, +9.7)
