College Football Playoff: Which Teams Are Staying or Going?

Alabama Crimson Tide

While the Crimson Tide have rightfully received a lot of love from the Selection Committee -- having gone undefeated through the SEC and all -- they're slightly overrated, according to our algorithms. Alabama's nERD of 35.62 is third among all NCAA teams in our power rankings, trailing only Ohio State and Michigan in expected margin of victory.

Alabama has entrenched themselves atop the rankings, so they're unlikely to fall out of the Playoff absent a loss. How likely is that, though?

Out of their remaining opponents, only one has a puncher's chance of taking down the Tide. The Auburn Tigers are the ninth-best team in the nation, according to both the Playoff Committee and us. Their nERD of 23.62 suggests that Alabama's just 12 points better than the Tigers, and in the Iron Bowl, we know all too well that anything can happen.

As for the other two teams, Mississippi State and Chattanooga (of FBS I-A), they don't stand much of a chance against Nick Saban and company. Easy enough -- hold serve and live to see the Playoff.