College Football Betting Guide: Friday 9/27/19
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Duke at Virginia Tech
Over 52.0 points -- 5 Stars out of 5
The 52.0-point total is a low bar for this matchup, as Duke is averaging 29.67 points per game this season, while Virginia Tech is averaging 27.67. Of course, it is difficult to judge teams based on the wild mismatches that often occur in early season non-conference play, but even dating back to last season, both teams averaged over 27 points per game.
Our projections expect there to be even more points in this matchup, with predicted totals of 31.50 for Duke and 32.44 for Virginia Tech, putting us more than 10 points clear of the current point total. Our models project a 78.78% chance of the over hitting, making this a five-star bet for Friday.
Penn State at Maryland
Maryland +6.5 points -- 2 Stars out of 5
Penn State has gotten off to a 3-0 start this season, but the Nittany Lions looked vulnerable in their narrow 17-10 victory over Pittsburgh in their last matchup. Even two games ago against Buffalo, James Franklin's team was trailing at halftime before a resurgent second half led to a blowout victory.
On the other side, Maryland defeated a formerly ranked Syracuse team by 43 points before suffering a letdown loss away to Temple. Both sides appear to be good-but-flawed teams, and with Maryland at home, a 6.5-point spread seems to be a bit excessive.
Our models project this to be about a five-point game, giving Maryland a 57.88% chance to cover the spread. While this bet is far from a sure thing, Maryland does provide enough of an edge here to qualify this as a two-star bet.
Arizona State at California
Arizona State +4.5 points -- 2 Stars out of 5
California has gotten off to a 4-0 start this season, but each of their victories over FCS opponents have come by one score or less. Similarly, Arizona State is 3-1, and both of their matchups against Power-5 opponents ended in 3-point games (10-7 win vs. Michigan State and a 34-31 loss to Colorado).
Our models have this game as essentially a toss-up, giving the Golden Bears a 53.5% chance to win with a projected score of 20.99 to 19.98 in favor of Cal.
We give the Sun Devils a 61.78% chance to cover the 4.5 point spread, ultimately making this another 2-star bet.
