College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 11/1/19
For the second week in a row, the Friday slate provides just one game, forcing us to exclusively fill out lineups in FanDuel's single-game format. This week it's Connecticut hosting Navy, which is a less-than-ideal matchup for fantasy purposes. Due to UConn's 112th-ranked scoring offense and 127th-ranked scoring defense, the Midshipmen are favored by 27.5 points.
In addition to this being an expected blowout, due to Navy's triple-option and UConn's general incompetence, both teams run slow-paced offenses. Navy ranks 82nd in plays per game, while the Huskies rank 87th.
If you're new to the single-game format, you'll select one player from this game as your MVP. The fantasy points accumulated with this selection will earn 1.5 times his total fantasy points. You'll then select four other players who earn fantasy points at the standard rate.
In this preview, I'll break down the top MVP candidates -- who should also be used in the normal slots if not selected as your MVP -- while also highlighting some value plays and some players you may want to avoid. All references to betting totals and spreads are from the NCAAF odds.
MVP Candidates
QB Malcolm Perry, Navy ($17,500) -- In six games against FBS opponents, Malcolm Perry is averaging 32.95 fantasy points per game, making him the obvious choice for the MVP slot. In four of those six games, he's rushed for over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. With UConn allowing 196.4 rushing yards per game -- the nation's 102nd-ranked run defense -- Perry should have no problem piling up points in this matchup.
RB Jamale Carothers, Navy ($15,000) -- If you want to fade Perry, Jamale Carothers is a possible option. Carothers, a former Mr. Football in Kentucky, posted 43 fantasy points last week against Tulane. However, he's appeared in just three games this season and is still behind starter Nelson Smith on the depth chart. According to the Capital Gazette, Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo praised Carothers' "breakaway speed" and implied he might be the fastest player he's ever coached. In a potential blowout, it's likely Niumatalolo will attempt to get Carothers involved again to build upon his limited experience.
RB Kevin Mensah, UConn ($13,000) -- Kevin Mensah is a long shot to be the correct MVP play in this game, but if you want to gamble on someone with upside and extremely low ownership in the MVP slot, Mensah makes the most sense. In order to beat Navy, UConn will likely try to control the ball with their run game. In their matchup with UCF, for example, Mensah carried the ball on five times out of nine total plays on their first three drives. Navy boasts the nation's 18th-ranked run defense, so it's unlikely, but if UConn can find success in the run game, Mensah could have fantasy value in a low-scoring game.
RB Nelson Smith, Navy ($12,000) -- Carothers' usage has increased over the last three weeks, but it does not appear to have made a significant dent in Smith's workload. Over their last three games, Smith still leads all Navy running backs with 43 carries, and he remains atop the depth chart. Smith's fantasy production hasn't been great this season, primarily due to the fact he's only reached the end zone three times. However, Smith does have 10 of the team's 29 carries inside the 10-yard line -- only Perry has more (13) and Carothers has zero.
Value Plays
WR Cameron Ross, UConn ($9,000) -- According to Sports Info Solutions, Cameron Ross leads UConn with a 24.3 percent target share. Navy's defense hasn't allowed over 20 fantasy points to a receiver this season, but they have allowed double-digit points to seven different receivers. Ross has reached 10 or more fantasy points four times, and with UConn likely playing from behind, this is an ideal scenario for him to put up a decent performance.
WR Matt Drayton, UConn ($7,500) -- True freshman Matt Drayton ranks fourth on the team with 32 targets, but he's tied for the team lead with six red-zone targets. He's reached double-digit fantasy points just once, so Drayton's floor is low. But with decent red zone usage, and likely extremely low ownership, he's a good tournament dart throw.
WR Mychal Cooper, Navy ($7,000) -- Navy has attempted just 50 passes this season, so all Navy receivers have a zero floor. At this price, however, you could justify throwing at dart at Mychal Cooper, who is tied for the team lead with 12 targets. Due to Navy's infrequent passing, they're often able to catch teams off guard. As a result, Cooper is averaging 22.9 yards per reception.
Ryan McCrystal is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan McCrystal also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username cfbfilmroom. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
