College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Friday 11/22/19
With only one game on the Friday night slate for Week 13, we're stuck playing only the single-game format this week. Wyoming hosts Colorado State in a Mountain West showdown that, unfortunately, has been significant altered by suspensions and injuries.
Colorado State will be without starting running back Marvin Kinsey Jr., who was suspended prior to Week 8 and has since left the team. Wyoming, meanwhile, will be without starting quarterback Sean Chambers for the third consecutive games due to a knee injury.
If you're new to the single-game format, you'll select one player from this game as your MVP. The fantasy points accumulated with this selection will earn 1.5 times his total fantasy points. You'll then select four other players who earn fantasy points at the standard rate.
In this preview, I'll break down the top MVP candidates -- who should also be used in the normal slots if not selected as your MVP -- while also highlighting some value plays and some players you may want to avoid. All references to betting totals and spreads are from the NCAAF odds.
MVP Candidates
WR Warren Jackson, Colorado State ($15,000) -- In eight games against FBS opponents, Warren Jackson is averaging 21.8 fantasy points. Since returning from injury in Week 7, he's commanded a 33.6 percent target share. Given his usage, Jackson is clearly the most consistent player on this slate and will likely be the consensus MVP choice. As a result, it makes sense to use him in cash games, but you might benefit from fading him as your MVP pick in tournaments.
RB Xazavian Valladay, Wyoming ($14,000) -- Xazavian Valladay missed practice on Tuesday due to a knee injury, but is expected to play on Friday. Since Tuesday's was the only practice open to the media this week, unfortunately that's the most recent update on his status. The Cowboys have been leaning heavily on Valladay in recent weeks, giving him 129 touches over the last four games (32.3 per game). Colorado State has allowed at least 20 fantasy points to a running back in five of nine games against FBS opponents this season. The combination of a heavy usage rate and a friendly defense gives Valladay an elevated ceiling.
QB Tyler Vander Waal, Wyoming ($12,000) -- In two starts filling in for the injured Chambers, Tyler Vander Waal has posted fantasy scores of 12.3 and 14.8 points. That mediocre production sets a relatively low floor, however, Colorado State's defense helps set his ceiling much higher. Opposing FBS starting quarterbacks are averaging 17.8 fantasy points against the Rams, with four quarterbacks topping the 20-point mark. If you want to fade Jackson and Valladay, who will likely be the most popular MVP selections, Vander Waal is a reasonable alternative.
Value Plays
RB Jaylen Thomas, Colorado State ($9,000) -- In three games since Kinsey was suspended, Colorado State doesn't appear to have settled on a feature back. Marcus McElroy ($10,500) leads the team with 36 attempts, but that accounts for just 34 percent of the team's carries. Jaylen Thomas isn't far behind with 25 carries, but most importantly, he leads the team with five attempts inside the 10-yard line. As the backup, he's a touchdown-dependent dart throw, but his goal line usage gives him the upside to warrant consideration.
TE Tre McBride, Colorado State ($8,500) -- Since Jackson returned from injury, tight end Tre McBride has been the third option in the Rams offense. However, McBride has similar usage to number-two target, Dante Wright. Over the last four games, McBride's target share is 14 percent, compared to 17.5 percent for Wright. Additionally, McBride has posted 48.6 fantasy points during this stretch, compared to 46 for Wright. This doesn't necessarily mean you should avoid Wright, but it's certainly worth noting you can get the same level of production at a $2,500 discount.
TE Josh Harshman, Wyoming ($8,000) -- All of Wyoming's pass-catchers are risky plays due to the Cowboys' run-heavy offense. If you use any of them, however, tight end Josh Harshman looks like the best bet due to his team-high 25.6 percent target share over their last four games.
Players to Avoid
WR Nate Craig-Myers, Colorado State ($7,500) -- Nate Craig-Myers, a transfer from Auburn, started the season out strong, averaging 12.4 fantasy points per game through his first three contests. Over Colorado State's last four games, however, he's seen just 13 targets and posted a combined 8.3 points. He doesn't appear to have a role in the offense any longer and should be avoided in this matchup.
Ryan McCrystal is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan McCrystal also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username cfbfilmroom. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
