College Football Betting Guide: Friday 10/23/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tulsa vs. USF
Tulsa -11.5: 2 Stars out of 5
Tulsa has played only two games so far due to COVID cancellations, but they have looked good in their early schedule. The Golden Hurricanes lost by just nine to the current sixth-ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys, and they defeated the then-11th ranked Central Florida Knights. Tulsa has certainly started off much better than South Florida has as USF is currently 0-4 against FBS opponents.
Our model gives Tulsa an 89.5% chance to win outright, and we project a final score of 31.40-16.08 in favor of Tulsa. Overall, we give Tulsa a 59.19% chance to cover the 11.5-point spread, making this a two-star bet.
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Over 51.5: 3 Stars out of 5
Although Wisconsin is known for its defense, they had a strong offensive team last season, scoring a total of 34.1 points per game. The Badgers' opener comes against an inferior Illinois team, and Wisconsin is rightfully 19.5-point favorites. We expect Wisconsin to put up significant points in this game, projecting them for a total of 37.72, getting us close to the 51.5-point total.
On the other side, Illinois will likely be outmatched, but they did average 26.7 points per game against FBS opponents last season, including 23 points against Wisconsin and 25 points against Michigan.
Overall, we project Illinois to score 17.86 points on Friday night, making the projected game total 55.58. We give the over a 63.81% chance of hitting, making this a three-star bet.
UL Lafayette vs. UAB
ULL -2.5: 1 Star out of 5
Under 50.5: 3 Stars out of 5
Louisiana-Lafayette got off to a hot start with an impressive 31-14 victory against preseason top-25 Iowa State in its opener. However, the Ragin Cajuns followed that up with three straight tight games in conference and lost last week to Coastal Carolina to drop to 3-1.
UAB has been impressive, going 2-0 in conference games, including a convincing 37-14 win over Western Kentucky last week. UAB’s defense has been good all season, allowing only 17 points against FBS opponents on the year.
Our model projects a low-scoring win for the Ragin Cajuns by a final of 24.79-18.62. We give ULL a 56.57% chance to cover, and we give the under a 65.48% chance to hit. We like the under better, but we endorse both the under and ULL to cover for Friday night’s game.
