Big 12 Betting Preview: 4 Over/Under and Conference Winner Bets to Make

The main news surrounding the Big 12 this offseason was the departure of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC. The future of Big 12 football is murky, but this season, it’s all about Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Texas.

Oklahoma returns Heisman candidate quarterback Spencer Rattler, and the Sooners are poised for a title push in Lincoln Riley’s fifth season in Norman.

It’s possible that a bigger school poaches Matt Campbell from the Cyclones at the end of this season; Iowa State is currently seventh in the AP Poll and stands as Oklahoma’s toughest competition in the conference this year.

Meanwhile, in Austin, new coach Steve Sarkisian will attempt to lead the Longhorns to their first conference title since the 2009 season, when they lost to Alabama in the National Championship. Texas has got a brutal schedule, so it may come down to Oklahoma and Iowa State in the Big 12 unless any team surprises as a contender.

Here are the odds, via FanDuel Sportsbook, to win the Big 12 for each team as well as their over/under total for this upcoming season:

Oklahoma

The Sooners are absolutely loaded this season, and they’re the best threat to end the current run of SEC and Clemson champions.

Spencer Rattler is arguably the best quarterback in the country, and they are getting running back Kennedy Brooks back after he opted out of last season. Brooks rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his two seasons before last. All-Big 12 wide receiver Marvin Mims returns and leads a deep receiver group, and they have offensive line depth behind Marquis Hayes and Wanya Morris, both of whom made the preseason all-Big 12 team. All of these position groups should add up to the best offense in the country.

Typically, the Sooners’ defense is what holds them back, but that unit should be improved, particularly from a pass rush perspective. Isaiah Thomas and Nik Bonitto had 8.0 and 7.5 sacks last season, respectively, and both return alongside interior lineman Perrion Winfrey, who has a future playing on Sundays.

Betting Oklahoma to win the conference would mean laying juice, so it’s a good idea to pass them up from a futures standpoint, similar to Alabama and Ohio State. However, their schedule is easy enough that betting them to win over 11 games has value. The Sooners’ toughest non-conference opponent is Nebraska, and they play Iowa State and TCU at home.

Iowa State

The Cyclones’ odds to win the Big 12 are too steep, and there’s not much value either way on their 9.5-win total. While most of their toughest opponents are home games – Iowa, Oklahoma State, Texas, and TCU – they have to go to Norman to play Oklahoma, who is simply at a tier above them talent-wise. Their offense will be great with 11 starters returning, including one of the best running backs in college football, Breece Hall. It’s likely that they lose to the Sooners twice, though, as they lack the same level of offensive depth that Oklahoma does.

Texas

The Longhorns are the best bet to make of the three teams listed at +1200 to win the Big 12 (Oklahoma State and TCU are the others). Since most conferences have a heavy favorite at an expensive price, the strategy here is to back a riskier team with high upside, similar to Texas A&M in the SEC.

New coach Steve Sarkisian is theoretically an upgrade over Tom Herman, and the Longhorns are always able to recruit talent. Texas hasn’t named a starting quarterback, but whether it’s Hudson Card or Casey Thompson, they’ll be surrounded with solid skill players to alleviate pressure. Bijan Robinson rushed for over 700 yards having only started six games last season; he’s probably the best running back in the Big 12 not named Breece Hall.

The Longhorns return 15 starters from their team that went 7-3 last year, which includes an upset over Oklahoma State in Stillwater. A rejuvenated program under Sarkisian could improve that record and even give Oklahoma a game in this year’s Red River Showdown in Dallas.

West Virginia

Although West Virginia doesn’t have a particularly difficult schedule, they do have to travel to play Oklahoma and TCU. The Mountaineers have to win seven games to go over their total, but there are at least five teams better than them on their schedule: the aforementioned road trips in addition to Texas, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State at home. West Virginia would have to rely on a perfect record in their other seven games or manage an upset or two against the top class in the conference.

The Mountaineers have to replace two offensive linemen on a unit that struggled to run block last season with the rushing attack averaging fewer than four yards per carry. They return eight starters on defense, which was best in the Big 12 last season in yards allowed per game, but many of their opponents will likely have improved on offense, and they don’t have the means to keep up, so under 6.5 wins is the play here.

Kansas

Let’s face it, the Jayhawks are terrible. They were winless last season and lost coach Les Miles due to controversy. Former Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold took over this offseason and has a daunting task in front of him. The rest of the conference is on another level and Kansas is going to have a hard time winning even just one conference game. Their non-conference opponents in the Division I FBS are Coastal Carolina and Duke, both of whom they play on the road. The Jayhawks might get past FCS opponent South Dakota in their opener, but they’ll be heavy underdogs in the rest of their games.

Best Bets:

- Oklahoma over 11 wins (-110)
- Texas to win Big 12 (+1200)
- West Virginia under 6.5 wins (-105)
- Kansas under 1.5 wins (-190)