College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 9/2/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Temple vs. Rutgers
Over 51.5: 3 Stars out 5
Temple had one of the worst defenses in college football last season, conceding 37.1 points per game, which ranked 109th in FBS. The Owls return only six starters on defense, and they will face a difficult opening challenge against a Rutgers team that averaged 26.7 points per game last season against exclusively Big Ten opponents.
Rutgers returns all 11 starters on offense, and our model projects them to score 35.78 points against the Owls on Thursday night. While that side of the ball could be a mismatch in Rutgers’ favor, Temple should be able to have at least some success offensively themselves, as they are led by new signal caller and Georgia transfer D’Wan Mathis, who started in the Bulldogs 37-10 win over Arkansas last season.
Our model likes this to be a high-scoring game, with Rutgers winning 35.78-20.75, giving us a total of 56.53 points. We hand the over a 66.02% likelihood of hitting, making this a three-star bet.
Appalachian State vs. East Carolina
App State -10.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Appalachian State had a great season last year, finishing 9-3, with two of their three losses coming against ranked opponents (Coastal Carolina and Louisiana). App State scored 32.2 points per game and put up at least 31 points in eight of their nine victories.
The Mountaineers are more than capable of putting up a big number on East Carolina, who had a poor defense last year, one that conceded 35.4 points per game. Overall, the Pirates went 3-6 and gave up 34 points or more in six of their nine games.
Our model gives App State a 73.79% chance to cover as 10.5-point favorites, making this the best bet of the night for Thursday.
Ohio State vs. Minnesota
Ohio State -14.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Ohio State is coming off a dominant season in which they went 7-1 and made the National Championship game. The Buckeyes had one of the most prolific offenses in college football, scoring 41 points per game. They return just six starters on that side, but as always, they are reloading with top recruits, including new passer C.J. Stroud, who was ranked as the number-two pro-style quarterback on 24/7 for the class of 2020.
On the flip side, Minnesota looked like an average Big Ten team last season, going 3-4. The Gophers conceded 31-plus points four times last year, so there is no reason to believe they will be able to slow down Ohio State.
Our algorithm has Ohio State winning 44.53-22.21. We project a 71.2% chance that the Buckeyes cover as 14.5-point favorites, making this a four-star bet.
