NCAAF

College Football Market Share Report: Week 5

Justyn Ross saw half of Clemson's total targets in their overtime loss visiting NC State. What other workloads stand out entering Week 5 of the college football season?

Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.

With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.

College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.

The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.

With that in mind, let's examine the market shares for players on Saturday's main slate on FanDuel.

Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample.

Quarterbacks

Player Team
Name
Week 4
Attempts
2021
Attempts
Per
Game
2021
Season-Long
YPA
Rush
Attempts
Per
Game
Rushing
Yards
Per
Game
Will Rogers MSST 62 56.3 6.43 0.5 7.5
Michael Penix Jr. IND 54 35.3 5.76 2.3 3.8
Connor Bazelak MIZZ 42 39.0 7.72 0.8 11.8
Graham Mertz WIS 41 32.3 5.84 2.3 1.7
Zach Calzada TXAM 37 27.3 5.59 1.5 13.0
Spencer Rattler OU 36 34.0 7.48 3.5 22.3
Spencer Sanders OKST 34 24.0 8.26 11.0 33.3
Tanner McKee STAN 31 25.3 8.54 2.3 21.5
Noah Vedral RUT 31 28.0 6.71 5.8 33.3
Dennis Grosel BC 29 16.0 7.50 3.5 33.3
Jack Coan ND 29 31.8 7.76 2.3 10.3
Max Duggan TCU 28 26.3 9.09 8.7 46.3
D.J. Uiagalelei CLEM 27 28.3 5.19 5.3 40.8
Emory Jones UF 27 26.3 6.36 10.3 96.3
Sean Clifford PSU 26 30.3 9.60 3.3 31.8
Bryce Young ALA 23 31.0 9.06 0.3 4.5
Casey Thompson TEX 23 13.5 10.46 1.5 22.0
Hendon Hooker TENN 23 17.8 8.68 3.3 42.0
Will Levis UK 22 25.3 8.93 3.8 23.3
Anthony Brown ORE 21 24.0 7.73 6.8 47.3
Gerry Bohanon BAY 19 21.8 9.54 5.5 30.3
Jaren Lewis KSU 19 11.5 6.70 2.0 8.0
Kyle McCord OSU 18 18.0 17.72 1.0 4.0
Cade McNamara MICH 16 13.3 10.08 2.8 1.8
Stetson Bennett UGA 15 10.0 14.83 1.7 22.3
KJ Jefferson ARK 14 19.3 10.91 6.3 60.8
JT Daniels UGA 10 24.0 7.74 0.3 -0.7
Will Howard KSU 10 12.3 6.73 7.3 36.0


A few surprises popped up entering this Saturday's main slate. Chief among them was Michael Penix Jr. ($7,200) flinging the pill 53 times for Indiana to hold off Eastern Kentucky in a game that was far closer than it should have been. Indiana is a 12.5-point underdog to Penn State on Saturday, and numberFire's model loves Indiana to cover the spread. If Indiana can hang close but trail, it is incredibly encouraging the coaching staff was willing to put the ball in Penix's hands, and that creates a tremendous opportunity at his low salary.

The same can be said for Graham Mertz ($5,700). Mertz was awful last week against Notre Dame, throwing four interceptions and completing just 43.9% of his passes. However, his salary is too low in this spot given that he is now averaging 39 pass attempts against Power 5 teams this season. Michigan has faced four lowly offenses, so Mertz could theoretically catch their defense out of the gates since they are not used to the same quality of offense that Wisconsin brings to the table. The only downside is that numberFire's betting model likes Wisconsin to cruise in this game, which could lead to a lot of running for the Badgers, but we project them for 35.11 points, so Mertz could have a big day.

Spencer Sanders ($8,200) is worth monitoring after chucking it 39 times against Kansas State. Sanders has always possessed the rushing component of a dual-threat quarterback (11.0 attempts per game), but the additional passing volume as Oklahoma State enters conference play could push him into a salary range closer to $10,000 before long. After the sketchy out-of-conference play, though, the Cowboys will need to be competitive in the Big 12 for it to matter, and Saturday should be a good start. Oklahoma State is a 3.5-point favorite over Baylor, and numberFire heavily prefers their side for a spread bet.

Running Backs

Player Team
Name
Week 4
Total
Opps
Week 4
Carries
Season
Carries
Season
Rush
Share %
Week
4
Targets
Season
Target
Share %
Jaylen Warren OKST 32 28 79 49.1% 4 7.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. UK 30 26 85 60.3% 4 6.9%
Stephen Carr IND 27 25 87 59.2% 2 3.7%
Pat Garwo III BC 25 25 61 40.9% 0 0.0%
Tyler Badie MIZZ 24 18 67 62.6% 6 15.7%
Isaih Pacheco RUT 24 20 64 40.5% 4 6.1%
Blake Corum MICH 23 21 69 37.7% 2 15.3%
Jo'quavious Marks MSST 22 13 35 56.5% 9 15.7%
Chez Mellusi WIS 21 18 69 50.7% 3 5.5%
Bijan Robinson TEX 20 18 70 45.8% 2 9.1%
Dillon Johnson MSST 19 8 23 37.1% 11 13.8%
Deuce Vaughn KSU 19 13 74 51.7% 6 22.7%
Zach Evans TCU 18 15 42 37.8% 3 5.0%
Kyren Williams ND 18 18 64 58.2% 0 9.1%
Nathaniel Peat STAN 18 13 27 31.8% 5 6.7%
Isaiah Spiller TXAM 18 12 52 47.3% 6 12.0%
Trelon Smith ARK 17 17 59 34.1% 0 2.4%
Eric Gray OU 16 12 45 38.5% 4 4.9%
Tiyon Evans TENN 16 11 42 28.2% 5 6.1%
Roschon Johnson TEX 13 13 25 16.3% 0 4.5%
Will Shipley CLEM 13 11 44 41.1% 2 4.2%
Jase McClellan ALA 13 12 34 27.9% 1 7.4%
Jabari Small TENN 12 11 40 26.8% 1 2.6%
Hassan Haskins MICH 12 12 61 33.3% 0 3.4%
Malik Davis UF 12 10 41 26.3% 2 7.1%
John Lovett PSU 12 11 13 11.5% 1 1.6%
Trestan Ebner BAY 11 8 51 31.7% 3 9.3%
Roydell Williams ALA 11 11 21 17.2% 0 0.8%
CJ Verdell ORE 11 11 63 44.7% 0 5.8%
Abram Smith BAY 11 10 57 35.4% 1 4.7%
Devon Achane TXAM 11 5 35 31.8% 6 9.0%
Kavosiey Smoke UK 10 9 29 20.6% 1 2.9%
Dameon Pierce UF 10 8 26 16.7% 2 7.1%
Daijun Edwards UGA 10 10 18 12.8% 0 0.9%


The concern around Jaylen Warren ($8,900) last week was his lack of pass-game work, and he answered the bell against Kansas State with four targets. If Warren is also on the field in passing situations, with an increasingly efficient Sanders at quarterback, his workload is essentially unmatched in college football in a terrible defensive conference. Despite a weak schedule, Baylor is 73rd in rushing defense in the NCAA and just let Breece Hall scamper for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns. Yeehaw!

Overall, Bijan Robinson ($11,500) is not getting the workload you would hope for out of an $11,500 running back. Texas has been bludgeoning weaker competition, but against Arkansas and needing to score, Robinson saw only 19 carries and a single target, which produced his most disappointing outcome of the season (13.1 FanDuel points). With the 'Horns only 5.5-point favorites over TCU, this game should stay close, and TCU is 101st in FBS in rushing defense. I would expect a monster day out of the hyper-efficient back, but a path to failure could be his volume.

The last note should be around the evolving Mississippi State backfield. This offense is so fast that we want pieces of it, and the running backs importantly see plenty of passing game work in the air raid system.

This might be the rare backfield with two viable options, as Jo'Quavious Marks ($6,900) saw 13 carries and 9 targets, and Dillon Johnson ($6,300) saw 8 carries and a whopping 11 targets. These two are both under-salaried for that type of role, given they are in the $6,000 range with other part-time backs. You still get a half-point for receptions on FanDuel, and it is something to be desired from all running backs.

Wide Receivers

Player Team
Name
Week 4
Targets
Week 4
Target
Share
Week 4
Yards
Share
Total
2021
Targets
2021
Target
Share
Total
2021
Yardage
Share
Ty Fryfogle IND 16 32.7% 27.5% 41 30.6% 25.0%
Kendric Pryor WIS 14 38.9% 28.8% 22 24.2% 22.7%
Justyn Ross CLEM 13 50.0% 69.4% 34 28.3% 31.9%
Tay Martin OKST 13 40.6% 30.2% 24 22.9% 23.1%
Makai Polk MSST 10 16.1% 21.4% 42 19.4% 21.0%
Michael Mayer ND 10 27.8% 25.5% 34 25.8% 23.3%
Michael Woods II OU 9 25.7% 33.6% 20 14.0% 13.8%
Malik Heath MSST 9 14.5% 11.3% 23 10.6% 10.9%
Zay Flowers BC 9 34.6% 35.4% 23 26.4% 34.2%
Miles Marshall IND 9 18.4% 17.9% 17 12.7% 10.7%
Kevin Austin Jr. ND 9 25.0% 31.8% 31 23.5% 20.1%
Keke Chism MIZZ 9 23.1% 22.1% 29 18.2% 14.1%
Jordan Whittington TEX 8 34.8% 30.7% 25 28.4% 27.9%
Treylon Burks ARK 8 44.4% 67.4% 30 36.6% 42.3%
Wan'Dale Robinson UK 8 42.1% 63.7% 38 37.3% 42.1%
Aron Cruickshank RUT 8 27.6% 20.5% 22 19.3% 13.6%
Danny Davis III WIS 8 22.2% 26.7% 22 24.2% 32.7%
Jahan Dotson PSU 7 22.6% 27.2% 36 29.0% 29.5%
Malik Knowles KSU 7 24.1% 13.1% 15 20.0% 23.5%
Bo Melton RUT 7 24.1% 16.7% 35 30.7% 33.9%
Elijah Higgins STAN 7 25.0% 35.5% 21 20.0% 22.7%
Barrett Banister MIZZ 7 17.9% 14.5% 12 7.5% 4.8%
Avery Davis ND 7 19.4% 23.0% 16 12.1% 17.8%
John Metchie III ALA 7 28.0% 11.4% 29 23.8% 19.1%
Justin Shorter UF 6 23.1% 25.0% 17 15.0% 10.2%
Xavier Worthy TEX 6 26.1% 33.0% 20 22.7% 28.0%
Braden Lenzy ND 6 16.7% 9.6% 19 14.4% 10.1%
Peyton Hendershot IND 6 12.2% 26.3% 18 13.4% 20.1%
Jahleel Billingsley ALA 6 24.0% 26.6% 9 7.4% 10.4%
Velus Jones Jr. TENN 6 20.0% 23.3% 14 12.3% 18.3%
Austin Williams MSST 6 9.7% 17.0% 21 9.7% 14.6%
John Humphreys STAN 6 21.4% 11.3% 13 12.4% 16.3%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba OSU 6 25.0% 24.2% 21 17.2% 21.0%
Joseph Ngata CLEM 6 23.1% 32.4% 24 20.0% 32.8%
Josh Ali UK 5 26.3% 13.7% 23 22.5% 24.4%
Chance Luper MIZZ 5 12.8% 5.0% 17 10.7% 11.1%
Drake Stoops OU 5 14.3% 5.9% 8 5.6% 5.3%
Johnny Johnson III ORE 5 21.7% 15.0% 16 15.4% 17.5%
Rick Wells UF 5 19.2% 18.1% 15 13.3% 13.8%
R.J. Sneed BAY 5 29.4% 36.8% 20 23.3% 36.7%
Adonai Mitchell UGA 5 18.5% 13.1% 14 13.0% 14.4%
Quentin Johnston TCU 5 17.9% 0.0% 21 26.3% 17.4%
Derius Davis TCU 5 17.9% 6.2% 12 15.0% 13.5%
Jamire Calvin MSST 5 8.1% 5.8% 17 7.8% 7.7%
KeAndre Lambert-Smith PSU 5 16.1% 20.5% 19 15.3% 16.1%
Taye Barber TCU 5 17.9% 41.3% 9 11.3% 21.1%
Rashod Owens OKST 5 15.6% 14.2% 9 8.6% 12.2%
Jadon Haselwood OU 5 14.3% 8.2% 24 16.8% 13.3%
Ainias Smith TXAM 5 15.6% 23.2% 24 18.0% 18.7%
Garrett Wilson OSU 5 20.8% 32.2% 40 32.8% 29.0%
Jalen Preston TXAM 5 15.6% 21.9% 5 3.8% 3.6%
Parker Washington PSU 5 16.1% 34.7% 27 21.8% 24.5%
Demond Demas TXAM 5 15.6% 8.6% 11 8.3% 12.4%


I noted this in my single-game helper for the massive SEC showdown on Saturday, but John Metchie III ($8,500) has some serious touchdown regression coming. In the most efficient offense in college football in terms of points per play, Metchie has seven more targets (29) than his next highest Alabama competitor (22), but Metchie has just one touchdown (from the opener against Miami). With a 46.10 implied team total for the Crimson Tide on Saturday, he may get those scores back in bunches.

Like Penix, Ty Fryfogle ($6,900) is under-salaried given his projected game script and his role. Fryfogle has 41 targets, but his salary is low because he has been able to turn that into just 21 receptions. Part of that is his inefficient quarterback, but the volume is there. Fryfogle is not the big-play threat many other receivers seeing a target share north of 30% are, but Penix looks his way often.

Justyn Ross ($8,000) now has a reasonable salary given his talent and role. At $6,900 on FanDuel, Ross carried north of a 25% target share into Clemson's matchup with North Carolina State, and he responded by seeing 13 of his team's total 26 targets in the overtime loss. Ross is -- arguably -- one of the best receivers in college football from a talent perspective, and he is seeing an elite workload. I want to make him a priority, but DJ Uiagalelei ($8,600) has been so inefficient (5.19 yards per attempt) that Ross is more of a one-off piece at the moment.