College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 10/28/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Troy vs Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina (-18.5): 3 Stars out of 5
Coastal Carolina is coming off a disappointing loss to Appalachian State last week that spoiled the Chanticleers' undefeated season. However, Appalachian State is a good team, so there is no shame in the three-point road loss Coastal suffered last weekend.
Coastal has scored 49 points or more in 5 of their 6 wins, and all 5 of these wins came by 25 points or more. Troy is a respectable 4-3 on the season, although one concerning factor for the Trojans is that their only common opponent with Coastal Carolina is Louisiana-Monroe. Troy lost to Monroe 29-16, while Coastal defeated them 59-6. Transitive property does not always apply correctly in college football, of course, but that is a concerning comparison if you are the Trojans.
Our model projects a 61.98% likelihood of Coastal covering the 18.5 point spread, making this a three-star bet for Thursday night.
South Florida vs East Carolina
East Carolina (-9.5): 5 Stars out of 5
South Florida is coming off a 34-14 win over Temple, but they have been disappointing for most of the season. The Bulls are 2-5 on the year, including a win over FCS Florida A&M. The Bulls suffered an average margin of defeat of 20 points in their five losses, so they are struggling to keep games close.
East Carolina is 3-4 to start the season, and even in their losses, they have performed well this season. The Pirates lost away to Central Florida and Houston the last two weeks, losing to UCF by four and falling to Houston in overtime. Houston is 6-1 on the season, so that loss is certainly not deserving of shame.
Our model gives East Carolina a 72.21% chance to cover the 9.5 point betting line, making this a five-star bet for Thursday.
