College Football Betting Guide: Wednesday 12/22/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Missouri vs Army
Over 56.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Army (-5.5): 5 Stars out of 5
Army finished the season 8-4, and they won 4 out of their last 5 games. Although they ran the triple option, the Black Knights were a good offensive team this season, scoring 33.58 points per game. They scored 30 points or more in seven contests, and all eight of their wins came by at least 7 points.
Missouri snuck into a bowl game at 6-6, and they, frankly, had a mediocre season. The Tigers averaged 29.67 points per game and allowed 34.67 points per game and their last two wins came by a combined 4 points.
Our model projects Army to win by a final score of 39.03-25.39, resulting in a total of 64.42 points. This would put us well over the game total of 56.5, so we project a 70.05% likelihood of the game going over the total. We like Army even more than we like the over; they are 72.3% likelihood to cover and a rare, five-star spread bet.
