College Football Betting Guide: Quick Lane Bowl (Nevada vs. Western Michigan)

Bowl season is in full swing, and while we have a few days before the major bowls are played, there is one Monday game. The Quick Lane Bowl will be played at Ford Field in Detroit between Nevada and Western Michigan as the second scheduled game, the Military Bowl, was canceled due to COVID concerns.

Let’s dive into Monday’s matchup and see where the best bets can be made.

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110-spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you are seeing the most updated information.

Quick Lane Bowl: Western Michigan Broncos vs. Nevada Wolfpack

Nevada +6.5 (+100): 4-Star Rating out of 5

This matchup is fairly lackluster in terms of stakes and prominence of the programs involved, but each team has a quarterback likely to be selected in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Carson Strong of Nevada is the more highly touted prospect, and he’s had a great year for the Wolfpack as he’s completed 70.0% of his passes for 4,186 yards, 36 touchdowns, and only 8 interceptions.

Meanwhile, Kaleb Eleby is likely to be taken on the second or third day of the draft, but he has also accumulated solid numbers for his team this season. Eleby has completed 63.8% of his throws for 3,115 yards, 21 touchdowns, and only 5 interceptions.

The difference in volume statistics can be attributed to the fact that Nevada has thrown far more often than Western Michigan this season.

Both teams have solid offenses led by NFL-caliber quarterbacks, but Nevada’s defense, ranked 59th per ESPN’s SP+ metric, is much better than Western Michigan’s defense, which is only ranked 92nd by the same metric.

Additionally, while the Broncos have had solid run-blocking from their offensive line (they rank 10th in average line yards per Football Outsiders), they’ve struggled to protect Eleby, particularly in passing downs where they’re ranked 102nd in sack rate.

Nevada’s defensive line is ranked 24th in passing down sack rate, so the Wolfpack might be able to give Eleby some trouble and more opportunities for Strong to move the ball down the field.

While our model sees Nevada winning only 44.9% on average, it predicts a likelihood of 71.2% for the Wolfpack to cover the spread.

As long as Strong performs well and the Wolfpack’s defense can pressure Eleby, Nevada should have a strong (pun intended) chance at pulling the upset.