College Football Betting Guide: Friday 11/25/22
As usual, the Friday after Thanksgiving has a slate that would put some Saturdays to shame.
We've got rivalry games throughout the weekend, but that includes three with pretty significant conference title implications, and our model actually loves a few angles when betting on those contests.
We need shopping money on Black Friday, so where can we potentially earn some?
Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns
Texas -8.5 (-110) - 4 Stars
Texas still has a plausible path to the Big 12 title game. They'll need a win hosting Baylor, and they'll need Kansas State to fall to Kansas on Saturday.
ESPN's SP+ analytical rankings and I agree -- the Longhorns are still an elite team. Even with four losses, they're eighth in ESPN's overall ranks, and their yards-per-play metrics (YPP) are exceptional. Texas is 22nd in offensive YPP, and they're 25th in defensive YPP allowed.
The Bears are much more hit-and-miss. Last week's near upset of Texas Christian was a hit, but they're a good bit behind Texas in most metrics. For example, they're 25th in ESPN's ranks, and they're outside the top 40 in FBS in YPP both offensively and defensively.
Baylor does still have a bowl berth to play for, but with maximum motivation on the Horns' side, our model is expecting them to cover the spread 67.4% of the time here. Against these standard 52.5% implied odds, this bet feels like a no-brainer.
Tulane Green Wave at Cincinnati Bearcats
Tulane ML (+112) - 2 Stars
Under 46.5 (-105) - 4 Stars
Two defensive-minded squads will battle in Cincinnati for the right to host the AAC title game on Friday.
The Bearcats, fresh off last year's CFP appearance, aren't a huge surprise. Despite sending plenty of talent to the NFL, they're once again sixth in the entire country in defensive YPP under Luke Fickell.
The surprise here is that this game means something. Tulane has come from nowhere to win nine games themselves behind a defense that's 26th in YPP allowed.
Tulane's rush-heavy offense (42.7% pass rate) features star back Tyjae Spears, and they're averaging 4.8 yards per carry on the ground. That's 35th in FBS. The Bearcats' stumbles have come from quarterback Ben Bryant. The graduate transfer's erratic play (61.2% completion rate) led to a surprise loss to Central Florida three games ago.
Overall, Tulane's run game should travel, and this is a Green Wave squad that knocked off K-State earlier this year. Cincinnati's cupcake schedule has seen them lose both games to top-35 squads in ESPN's SP+ rankings, and Tulane is their third try.
At this point, I have more faith in the Green Wave's offense, and so does our model. Our model believes Tulane wins this game a majority of the time (56.8%), so I'll take the moneyline instead of the points. Both are two-star wagers.
It also likes these defense-first squads to fall short of the projected total (46.5 points) a sizable 67.1% of the time.
North Carolina State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina State +6.5 (-115) - 3 Stars
Over 55.5 (-110) - 5 Stars
The North Carolina circus act came crashing and burning last week.
UNC has relied upon points in bunches from their uptempo air-raid system, and they had won six straight one-score games before last week's embarrassing setback to Georgia Tech. They've been overvalued in betting markets all season.
This stylistic clash should present more of the same. As mentioned, the Tar Heels are an offense-first program. They're 18th in offensive YPP (which isn't even as stellar), and they're a dismal 114th in defensive YPP allowed.
On the other side, North Carolina State is a decent 49th in defensive YPP, but they've stumbled to 116th in offensive YPP as they continue to search for answers due to the season-ending injury suffered by Devin Leary. Freshman quarterback Ben Finley, the brother of former N.C. State quarterback Ryan Finley, should get the start in Chapel Hill.
UNC has played nine schools that are Power 5 or Group of 5 members, and seven of those matchups came down to a score. While 83% of bets and 72% of the money are on North Carolina here, this is just too many points to lay with a defense as bad as theirs.
Our model thinks the Wolfpack stay within six points 63.1% of the time here, creating plenty of value on their spread. It's expecting this game to surpass the total here 75.4% of the time, as well. Fire away with bets on both.
