7 NFL Head Coaches on the Hot Seat in 2016
Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson have been at each other’s throats for years, it seems, and this dispute nearly boiled to a head in the 2015 season. Pagano, in his contract year, slunk his way to an 8-8 finish. Nevertheless, he talked his -- and apparently Grigson’s -- way into an extension for four years, through 2019.
It remains to be seen if he’ll be able to play that contract out, however, as we’ve noted in a previous article that Pagano has the dubious honor of being the most overrated NFL head coach since 2000. Yes, Pagano’s career 41-23 record (.641) looks good, but is not indicative of his Colts’ average annual nERD score, which comes in at a middling -0.80. In fact, Pagano’s Colts have never had a nERD above 5.00 but did have a -5.30 nERD in 2015 -- 25th in the league.
Both Pagano and Grigson’s careers thus far have been buoyed by quarterback phenom Andrew Luck, but we all saw last year just how bad that roster looks when Luck isn’t in the lineup. The offensive line has been atrocious, allowing an average of 110 quarterback hits since Luck entered the league. The defense has gotten no better from when Pagano became head coach (0.09 Adjusted Defensive NEP per play) to now (0.08 in 2015).
Seat Heat: 2 “Scorchios” out of 5. Luck and a great career record can only bail a coach out for so long. The Colts are an imbalanced team, so a sub-.500 finish could mean Pagano’s exit after all. That said, I think he at least gets to 2017 because of the extension investment the team made in him.
