7 NFL Head Coaches on the Hot Seat in 2016

Rex Ryan, Buffalo Bills

It’s a bad sign when rumors swirl after your first year with a team that they were considering firing you. Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan seems to be in hot water already after his first season in upstate New York. Ryan led the Bills to an 8-8 season in his 2015 debut and has a solid -- albeit unspectacular -- .482 winning percentage for his career. On the surface, this short leash seems odd.

But the surface belies the fact that Ryan’s career record sans his two AFC Championship berths in his first two years sits at 34-46 -- a .425 percentage. Ryan took the NFL’s second-best defense in 2014 (and top-10 for the previous two years) by Adjusted Defensive NEP per play and reduced them to a middling 16th-place finish in 2015. Buffalo’s offense drastically improved, from a 0.00 Adjusted Offensive NEP per play to a 0.10, but that doesn’t offset the damage done to a stellar defensive unit; the team’s nERD dropped from 3.00 in 2014 to 1.46 in 2015.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back LeSean McCoy, and wide receiver Sammy Watkins are the core of a good offense for the long-term. Where Ryan needs to focus his attention is on shoring up his defense, his specialty, especially considering that his first top two rookie selections in 2016 -- defensive end Shaq Lawson and linebacker Reggie Ragland -- are both injured to begin the season.

Seat Heat: 5 “Scorchios” out of 5. Buffalo ownership wants a playoff berth, but Ryan hasn’t had one of those since 2010. It’s uphill sledding for him with a defense that can’t generate consistent pass-rush (or stay healthy).