5 Players You Should Reach for in Fantasy Football Drafts
Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
Melvin Gordon burned a lot of fantasy drafters in 2015. That could be different in 2016.
Our own Jim Sannes took a look at Gordon’s rookie season and concluded that, while putting up the second-worst Rushing Next Expected Points (NEP) among all backs with at least 100 carries last year, he wasn't as bad as you think. Jim's case boiled down to two key points that leave room for optimism on Gordon.
First, all of the Chargers' starting offensive lineman save for Joe Barksdale spent a good chunk of time off the field with injuries, so Gordon was basically running behind the team's second-string line for much of the season.
Second, despite running behind that porous line, Gordon still put up a Success Rate -- the percentage of positive runs by NEP -- of 36.96%, which is definitely below league average, but still higher than that of 2015 rookie stud Todd Gurley. A healthy offensive line should increase the frequency of his successful runs. The return of the team's number-one receiver in Keenan Allen should also help open up some running lanes.
Another reason for optimism with Gordon was his excellent catch rate of 89%, securing 33 catches on 37 targets in 2015. With that kind of production in the passing game, Gordon's role in the receiving game could eat into Danny Woodhead's work.
Since Jim's article in January, there have been a number of developments that leave Gordon's stock arrow pointed up.
Despite having microfracture surgery in the offseason, Gordon's recovery was remarkably fast, and he's already looked pretty explosive as evidenced by his 44-yard touchdown reception where he straight trucked over a Titans' defender to get into the end zone for his first unofficial score in Week 1 of the preseason.
And Gordon will now be under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, who, in 2013, got a career year out of Ryan Mathews to the tune of 1,255 rushing yards, all the while allowing Woodhead to eat in the receiving game. Under Whiz, there should definitely still be room for two productive fantasy backs.
Finally, the sunk cost of a first-round draft pick means the Chargers aren't going to give up on Gordon after one bad rookie season, especially after not having drafted another back in May. A young running back who has the second-most rushing yards in a single season in FBS history combined with near-elite athleticism doesn't come around very often in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts.
As such, get Gordon in the late-fifth or early-sixth round to beat your leaguemates to the punch. Gordon's surrounding circumstances were so bad last year that a few changes in fortune might have him flash that RB1 upside in 2016 that everyone was sure he had heading into his rookie season.
