The 13 Best Values in Fantasy Football Drafts

Giovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Giovani Bernard has finished outside the top 20 in running back scoring as many times as you and I have throughout his career (unless for some reason Trent Richardson is reading this article, then that statement doesn't apply).

Even given this fact, Bernard's leaving PPR draft boards as the 23rd back selected.

Why? Jeremy Hill, touchdowns, and a perceived lack of upside. Here's a snippet about this from an analysis I did a few weeks ago:

If you compare rushing yards to touchdowns among backs last year and run a quick regression analysis, it says that Bernard's touchdown total should have been closer to five rather than two. The difference in touchdowns -- it was 2.87 -- was the eighth-highest difference in the NFL.

Hill, meanwhile, saw a touchdowns scored versus expected touchdowns difference of -5.69. That was the highest in the league.

This is obviously due to the roles these two backs have, as Hill was third in the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line with 16 while Bernard had just 4. But it won't be very difficult for Gio to score more than the two touchdowns he had in 2015 -- a year where he, again, was one of the highest floor backs in the league.

To put this another way, while Hill will still be the primary ball-carrier close to the end zone, it would be foolish to think the two backs' touchdown totals will be as far apart in 2016 as they were in 2015.

And then there's the other angle to Bernard's upside: If Hill goes down, all of a sudden Bernard is a primary back in what should be an above-average offense.

At the very least, you're drafting Bernard at his probable floor. Meanwhile, there are some reasons for optimism, and multiple paths to him being more of a fringe RB1 rather than a lower-end RB2. He's a great high-floor pick for teams that go wide receiver-heavy early.