Fantasy Football: 5 Receivers Primed for Bounce-Back Seasons
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts
T.Y. Hilton didn't have as down of a 2015 season as the aforementioned Bryant and Cobb did, but overall, his production didn't match the lofty expectations fantasy owners had for him entering the season.
After signing a lucrative contract prior to the year, fantasy owners were salivating at the prospects of the Andrew Luck-to-Hilton connection for years to come. But the Colts' offense was woefully ineffective for the vast majority of the season, and it was given no chance for a midseason turnaround when Luck's campaign abruptly ended due to a lacerated kidney.
But a look at Hilton's career leaves tons of room for optimism for 2016.
| Season | Receptions | Reception NEP | Reception NEP per Target | Catch Rate | Reception Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 50 | 82.46 | 0.92 | 55.56% | 84.00% |
| 2013 | 83 | 89.17 | 0.64 | 59.71% | 80.72% |
| 2014 | 82 | 108.36 | 0.83 | 62.60% | 90.24% |
| 2015 | 69 | 100.58 | 0.75 | 51.49% | 94.20% |
For starters, Hilton's game is that of the field-stretching extraordinaire variety. Thanks to that big-play ability, in all of his seasons as a pro -- save for his sophomore campaign -- Hilton has been very efficient, finishing as a top-11 receiver in Reception NEP per target among receivers targeted at least 90 times.
But what's most encouraging about his 2015 season, however, is his 94.2% Reception Success Rate, which, among the 32 receivers targeted at least 100 times, he finished fourth in the NFL.
That means that even with the subpar quarterbacking Luck provided in 2015, and the quarterbacking of eligible-to-withdraw-his-401k-savings-without-penalty aged Matt Hasselbeck, Hilton was still consistently moving the chains when he got the ball. That bodes well for his chances to remain Luck's top target headed into 2016, a year in which the Colts are expected to employ more three-wide-receiver sets.
And make no mistake, Hilton was Luck's top target last season. Looking at Rotoviz's Game Splits app, it's clear that Hilton was on pace to put together a fine season prior to Luck's kidney laceration. Before Luck's injury, Hilton was on pace for 149 targets and 237 fantasy points in points per reception (PPR) leagues, which would have placed him 9th and 14th, respectively, among all receivers.
And It seems as if the Colts' brass finally got the message about the need to protect their star quarterback as Indy took four offensive linemen in the 2016 NFL Draft. Providing Luck with more time to throw should only enhance the Luck-to-Hilton connection. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on Hilton at his current 3.03 ADP.
