Fantasy Football: 5 Receivers Primed for Bounce-Back Seasons
Torrey Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Torrey Smith, a size-speed freak with field-stretching ability, had a largely silent 2015 campaign in his first year with the San Francisco 49ers. In fact, I'm not sure if there is anything particularly noteworthy that happened for Smith last season.
But when you dig into the numbers and analyze his surrounding situation for 2016, it's easy to come away excited about the potential for a much bigger season than he was able to put together last year.
| Season | Receptions | Reception NEP | Targets | Reception NEP per Target | Catch Rate | Reception Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 50 | 73.08 | 95 | 0.77 | 52.63% | 88.00% |
| 2012 | 49 | 77.4 | 110 | 0.70 | 44.55% | 91.84% |
| 2013 | 65 | 97.73 | 137 | 0.71 | 47.45% | 90.77% |
| 2014 | 49 | 80.96 | 92 | 0.88 | 53.26% | 87.76% |
| 2015 | 33 | 53.38 | 62 | 0.86 | 53.23% | 87.88% |
First, it's important to establish what was at the heart of Smith's reduced productivity in 2015. And looking at the chart above, it's pretty clear that the answer was overall opportunity. His catch rate, and Reception Success Rate each were in line with his career averages. He actually put together his second-most efficient season on a per-target basis with a 0.86 Reception NEP per target.
But he only garnered an insanely underwhelming 62 targets. Why? Well, the 49ers' passing offense was atrocious. Collectively, with Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert under center, the 49ers ranked 25th in Adjusted Passing NEP per drop back, so the offense couldn't stay on the field.
The offense also lost plenty of scoring opportunities because their defense couldn't get off the field, either, ranking 27th in Adjusted Defensive NEP per play in the league.
A bad offense and a bad defense led to the team running the third-fewest offensive plays in the NFL last season on a per-game basis.
A couple of positive developments should help boost Smith's chances of being a fantasy football factor moving forward. First, Anquan Boldin, who accounted for 111 targets -- 22.8% of the team’s total target market share -- wasn't re-signed by the 49ers.
Secondly, Chip Kelly is now the head coach of the 49ers. Kelly's teams in Philadelphia ranked in the top three in plays run in each of the past two years.
There is also evidence Kelly's offense can lead to greater production out of the quarterback position. Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez -- in 2013 and 2014, respectively -- each had their best seasons under the tutelage of Kelly. If Kelly can help improve the play of Gabbert or Kaepernick, that only stands to benefit Smith.
So, with a major target hog in Boldin leaving town, the almost assured increase in pace of play, and the potential for improved quarterback efficiency, Smith has a trifecta of factors pointing in the direction of a bounce-back campaign.
