4 Backup Running Backs Worth Targeting Late in Your Fantasy Football Draft
DeAndre Washington, Oakland Raiders
DeAndre Washington didn't enter the league with much hype, drafted by the Oakland Raiders as a fifth-round selection, but there are multiple factors working in his favor that make him worth targeting late in your draft.
First, he stands to have immediate standalone value as he is likely to serve as the third-down back in this ascendant Raiders offense. In addition to the glowing reviews out of camp, math that says he probably should serve in that role -- at a minimum.
We can determine this by looking at numberFire’s signature in house metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), which shows just how good players are based on their level of play versus expectation. If a running back rushes for three yards on a 3rd-and-5, it is obviously less effective than that same three-yard run on a 3rd-and-2.
One likely results in a punt while the other in an extended drive. NEP accounts for such nuances better than traditional statistics and tells a better story about a player's true effectiveness.
Latavius Murray, the Raiders' current starter, just isn't that good in the passing game. Don’t believe me? Check out the numbers.
| Reception NEP per Target | Catch Rate | Reception Success Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Murray 2014 | 0.27 | 73.91% | 58.82% |
| Murray 2015 | 0.14 | 77.36% | 53.66% |
| League Average 2015 | 0.36 | 74.23% | 64.94% |
In both 2014 and 2015, Murray was much less efficient in the passing game than league average running backs. While he caught the balls directed his way at a percentage on par with other backs in the league in 2015, it's clear from both his 2014 and 2015 seasons that he wasn’t doing much with those grabs as evidenced by his way-below-average Reception Success Rates, which is the percentage of catches that result in a positive NEP gain.
Murray's ineffectiveness in the passing game plays to one of Washington's strengths. In each of his last three years at Texas Tech, he caught 30-plus passes, granted the Red Raiders are a high-volume passing attack.
Not only was Murray ineffective in the passing game, he also left a lot to be desired in the running game, too.
| Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP per Rush | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| -18.16 | -0.07 | 34.46% |
As our own Tony DelSignore pointed out, among the 72 backs with at least 50 carries in 2015, Murray finished 64th in Rushing NEP, 49th in Rushing NEP per carry, and 60th in Rushing Success Rate.
That's pretty gross, and it may be indicative of the thin ice Murray could be on if he starts the season cold. If he does, the Raiders have already said that they see Washington as more than a third-down back. His impressive preseason work thus far, in which he's run for over 5.0 yards per carry, indicates they might be right.
With a largely ineffective starter in front of him and a chance at having immediate standalone value, Washington, currently going in the middle of the 11th-round in 12-team leagues -- per fantasyfootballcalculator.com -- is a great lottery ticket to target.
