Fantasy Football: 10 Players Who Won't Live Up to the Hype

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson has been a fantasy football stud since entering the league (2014 excluded, of course), but this might finally be the year that gets him (as if we haven't heard that before).

There are some legitimate concerns, though. The Minnesota Vikings lost quarterback Teddy Bridgewater for the season, and while they can still make the playoffs, there's less reason to expect positive game scripts for the Vikings in 2016 with Shaun Hill under center.

Since 2011, Peterson has averaged 15.8 PPR points per game in losses (30 games) but 20.6 in wins (29 games). Compound that with the very real chance that Jerick McKinnon takes over as the team's primary third-down back, and Peterson's role could be diminished drastically.

Per our Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, McKinnon added 0.17 points per carry last year on 52 totes. Peterson added 0.01. Both were easily above the league average of -0.04, but McKinnon was nearly as reliable each play (with 40.38% of his carries yielding positive expected points for his team) as Peterson was (40.67%).

McKinnon fits the mold of a playing-from-behind back, and that could leave Peterson owners disappointed this season.