5 NFL Players Whose 2015 Metrics Should Be Ignored Entering 2016
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Lockett has run away with the title of fantasy offseason darling at wide receiver and was the receiver of the coveted Matt Harmon Boost after being profiled as a potential breakout by the Reception Perception innovator. His average draft position (ADP) had him as a late sixth-round pick in the month of August.
Count NEP as a fellow believer, with Lockett finishing third in the NFL in Reception NEP per target (1.00) behind only teammate Doug Baldwin (1.01) and Sammy Watkins (1.05) for receivers with more than 30 targets. Those are astounding numbers that demonstrate both his efficiency and touchdown ability, and many are predicting that Lockett could be 2016's version of Allen Robinson.
While I certainly agree that the talent is there for Lockett to be a breakout candidate and that the metrics are accurately detailing his effectiveness as a player, concerns about his target share and overall workload and consistency make Lockett make that ADP tough to justify.
His preseason usage potentially foreshadows those concerns and even those who place very little stock in these exhibition games have raised an eyebrow. Lockett was rarely used in two wide receiver sets and saw a similar snap total to the oft-injured Paul Richardson, a former second-rounder who the team loves and drafted before Allen Robinson.
While Russell Wilson's efficiency as a passer has continued to improve, the team still ranked 29th in the NFL in pass attempts in 2015, despite an ineffective and injured Marshawn Lynch and Wilson attempting a career high 489 passes. Baldwin is the only 1,000-yard receiver on Wilson's résumé (1,069 in 2015) and was re-signed in the offseason. The team also re-signed Jermaine Kearse, the team's best blocker and the guy often running ahead of Lockett in two-wide-receiver sets.
With Thomas Rawls healthy, Christine Michael awakened, and Jimmy Graham set to return at some point, it's hard to see how Lockett's role improves enough to make him a consistent fantasy option. To believe that is to presume that the Seattle Seahawks will morph into a pass-first team, allowing Wilson (behind a shaky offensive line) to air it out like we haven't seen yet under Pete Carroll. And even in these circumstances, it assumes Lockett will then jump Kearse to have a more prominent role in the offense.
While all of that is certainly possible, the likely outcome would indicate that Lockett is an efficient and effective (but not dependable) role player for both your fantasy team and for the Seahawks. Based on his hard-to-predict production, he's a player who may not live up to the hype.
