NFL

5 Market Shares to Monitor in Week 1 for Fantasy Football

Jim Sannes  —  @JimSannes Sep 7th, 2016
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Arizona Cardinals' Target Market Share

It's the thing everybody has been talking about this whole offseason: who will emerge at wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals?

Truthfully, we have no idea. Larry Fitzgerald was the obvious lead dog last year with a 26.7% market share, but he seemed to fade down the stretch with just 5.75 targets per game over the final four games. Michael Floyd had a 23.4% market share the final five games, but part of that was due to persisting injuries for John Brown. Then Brown further muddied the waters by getting healthy and seeing 28 targets over the final three games (including the postseason), eclipsing Fitzgerald by 2 targets and Floyd by 9.

It's a full-blown mess up in here.

What we do know, though, that the lead receiver in this offense (if there truly is one) is going to have immense fantasy value. Carson Palmer finished second in the league in per-drop back efficiency last year, based on numberFire's metrics, meaning they will have efficient volume that leads to touchdown drives. If we knew who that guy would be, he'd be a lot more expensive than he currently is.

Because each of these guys has a decently-high floor with the offensive efficiency, it's another situation where it can't hurt to get exposure however you can. If that means taking the low-hanging fruit in Brown because of his preseason injury concerns, great. If you want to bank on Floyd's raw talent eventually shining through, that's also worthwhile. Or if you think the wily veteran has more juice in his legs, then give Fitzgerald a shot. Either way, you want to take swings at these players.

The only issue we run into here is that Week 1 may not be fully representative of what to expect the rest of the season. As mentioned, Brown has been largely sidelined throughout training camp, so he may not get a full leash in the regular-season opener. This will force you to proceed with caution around any Week 1 takeaways, but we do still want to track this situation closely.

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