5 Market Shares to Monitor in Week 1 for Fantasy Football
Indianapolis Colts' Target Market Share
After a year riddled with injuries, the Indianapolis Colts have their gun slinger back. That has led in the past to a high-volume passing offense, and the upsides of snagging a piece of that are pretty obvious.
The only problem with that is we really have no idea how the targets are going to shake out. Looking at the target market share numbers from when Luck was healthy last year does nothing to lift the fog.
| Pass Catcher | Targets Per Game | Market Share |
|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 9.3 | 22.8% |
| Donte Moncrief | 7.7 | 18.9% |
| Andre Johnson | 5.6 | 13.7% |
| Coby Fleener | 5.0 | 12.3% |
The names have changed, but the takeaway is pretty clear: there wasn't a high concentration in the offense, and it kept everybody's market shares at reasonable levels. We may not be accounting for the value in a player if he were to see an expansion in market share.
At a 22.8% market share, T.Y. Hilton saw 9.3 targets per game. What if we suddenly bumped that up to 25.0%? What if Donte Moncrief saw the same market share that Hilton had last year? Not only are those probabilities, but they almost seem likely, and these dudes would immediately shoot up in price if that were to happen.
The flip side of this is also intriguing. If the Colts were to give their number-three wide receiver -- in this case, Phillip Dorsett -- a role comparable to what Andre Johnson had last year, he'd be a viable option at low prices in DFS. And if Dwayne Allen were to see five targets per game like Coby Fleener did, then his floor would rise to match his already-intriguing upside. That's why we need to keep a close eye on this grouping in Week 1.
The odds are that prices on all of these assets will rise right out of the gate. And there's the potential some could rise more than others depending on how the market share shakes out. As such, it's smart to buy assets now while you can because we may not find these guys as cheap as they are at any other point throughout the season.
