5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 1
Atlanta Falcons Passing Offense
I know how much y'all love Matt Ryan. So much so that he was the 19th quarterback off the board in re-draft leagues, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. The sentiment doesn't get much rosier than that.
Here's the thing about Matt Ryan, though, that we often gloss over: he's actually not that bad of a quarterback.
Ryan finished last year ranked ninth in Passing NEP per drop back of the 46 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. This put him one spot behind Cam Newton and ahead of a laundry list of names held in higher regard than his. From an efficiency perspective, he's really good, even if it didn't show up in his fantasy output.
His home/road splits may be the best example of this. Below are his numbers in each situation, with Success Rate being the percentage of dropbacks on which the quarterback increased the team's NEP.
| Venue | Passing NEP | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 74.96 | 0.25 | 55.9% |
| Road | 40.03 | 0.12 | 50.4% |
You wouldn't know how well Ryan did at home, though, by looking at his more traditional stats, which show a 12:11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When we toss in the two games he played on the road that were also indoors, Ryan's Passing NEP per drop back increases to 0.26 with a 59.0% Success Rate. He's actually good, and he can absolutely rip the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pass defense to shreds.
The Buccaneers finished last year ranked 28th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, and this is something that translated into the fantasy realm. They allowed three different quarterbacks to finish as top-three weekly scorers against them, Matt Hasselbeck was the 13th-ranked quarterback in Week 12, and Case Keenum -- yes, Case Keenum -- scored 17.1 points against them on 17 attempts in Week 15. If those guys can succeed against them, then so can Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons.
This hopefully goes without saying, but Julio Jones is one of the best cash-game options available at receiver as long as his foot issue checks out over the next few days. He's not as attractive for tournaments simply because he will be grotesquely popular, but you could even consider him there because the matchup is so good.
If you're looking to stack Ryan without bearing the brunt of the Julio ownership, then Mohamed Sanu is waiting to swoop in and steal your heart. Jones consumes a majority of the targets, but with Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson out the door, there are some looks waiting to fall into Sanu's arms. At $5,800 on FanDuel, you're benefiting from the ambiguity in Sanu's role, and that's a tempting option in a matchup like this.
