The 10 Most Impactful Plays From Week 1

​Honorable Mentions

So what is NEP? By adding down-and-distance value to standard box score information, we can see just how much each play and each team as a whole influence the outcome of games. If a player passes for five yards on 3rd-and-2, it means more to the game than it does on 3rd-and-10, and those plays should be valued accordingly. For more info on NEP, check out our glossary.

Each play has a NEP value. Each play also changes the Win Probability of the game. I factored those values together to see which plays were the most impactful to the moment on the field and the game as a whole.

Below were some exciting moments from Week 1 with big value swings in one category, but didn’t cut it in the other:

10. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco drops a dime to wide receiver Mike Wallace for 66 yards and a touchdown (WP: +12.90, NEP: +5.97).
9. New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks catches a pass and races down the sideline for a 98-yard touchdown (WP: +13.22, NEP: +7.66).
8. Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson trips on his own lineman and fumbles. Miami Dolphins linebacker Kiko Alonso recovers (WP: -17.13, NEP: -4.48).
7. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton drops a rainbow to wide receiver Brandon LaFell for 49 yards (WP: +19.85, NEP: +4.87).
6. Carolina Panthers kicker Graham Gano hooks the game-winning field goal left of the uprights (WP: -69.19, NEP: -4.08).

Now onto the top-five plays of the week!