5 Fantasy Football Studs Who Started Slow in Week 1: Should We Panic?
Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Last season's top scoring fantasy running back had a rough start to his 2016 season, with Devonta Freeman netting just 20 yards on his 11 carries all while failing to score a touchdown. Worse yet, backup Tevin Coleman cut significantly into his receiving role with 5 receptions for a team leading 95 yards.
Most assumed that even if Coleman ate into Freeman's rushing workload, the latter would still have the more prominent role in the passing game and in the red zone. Sunday's loss to Tampa Bay put those assumptions in doubt, and now owners are left wondering what to expect moving forward.
Both Freeman and Coleman had identical Rushing NEP per rush metrics (an inefficient -0.31 for both) against a talented and often under-appreciated Buccaneers rush defense (Tampa was a top-10 unit according to our metrics last year).
So what happened?
As rushers, both were ineffective against that front, and the snap count overall was similar (36-32 in favor of Freeman). As receivers, however, the Falcons made a concerted effort to scheme Coleman in space with screens and wheel routes. In 2015, those targets all went to Freeman, who was effective but simply doesn't possess the straight-line speed that Coleman does (who had just two receptions in 2015).
Freeman is still the better runner, with more creativity and the agility to make defenders miss behind a subpar offensive line, but with the gap closing in the receiving game, it's likely that the workload between the two backs will be much more even than many anticipated. Without an injury, expect Coleman to continue to be a big factor as both a receiver and a runner, depressing Freeman's value along the way.
With the Falcons seemingly committed to showcasing Coleman, who they handpicked last year (Freeman was drafted by a previous regime), this has the look of a hot-hand committee with both players eating into the value of the other. I would look to sell Freeman if top-15 value presents itself.
