The 10 Most Impactful Plays of Week 3

​Honorable Mentions

So what is NEP? By adding down-and-distance value to standard box score information, we can see just how much each play and each team as a whole influence the outcome of games. If a player passes for five yards on 3rd-and-2, it means more to the game than it does on 3rd-and-10, and those plays should be valued accordingly. For more info on NEP, check out our glossary.

Each play has a NEP value. Each play also changes the win probability (WP) of the game. I factored those values together to see which plays were the most impactful to the moment on the field and the game as a whole.

Below were some exciting moments from Week 3 with big value swings in one category but didn’t cut it in the other.

10. Arizona Cardinals placeholder Drew Butler fumbles the snap on a field goal try, and Buffalo Bills gunner Aaron Williams scoops it for a 53-yard touchdown return (WP: 12.12, NEP: 9.65).
9. Cleveland Browns reserve cornerback Briean Boddy-Calhoun picks off Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill and brings it back for a score (WP: 15.39, NEP: 7.01).
8. Philadelphia Eagles running back Darren Sproles gets behind the defense on a busted play, and quarterback Carson Wentz hits him for a 73-yard touchdown (WP: 14.70, NEP: 7.24).
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Kwon Alexander jumps in front of Los Angeles Rams quarterback Case Keenum's pass and returns it 38 yards for a touchdown (WP: 15.06, NEP: 7.49).
6. Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian drops a beautiful pass right into wide receiver Demaryius Thomas' arms for a 55-yard scoring strike (WP: 20.18, NEP: 6.32).

Now onto the top-five plays of the week!