NFL

Week 4 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Use your ← → (arrow) keys to browse the slideshow

San Diego Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints

Over/Under: 53.50
Chargers Implied Team Total: 28.75
Saints Implied Team Total: 24.75

Once again, the game with the highest over/under on the slate involves -- you guessed it -- the New Orleans Saints. Vegas sees this matchup turning into a shootout, giving the San Diego Chargers the highest implied team total on the slate.

In addition to the obvious benefit of facing New Orleans' poor defense, the Chargers will benefit from playing in a more up-tempo game. In 2015, they ran the third-most plays (68.8) in the league, a number that has dropped to 22nd under Ken Whisenhunt. That shouldn't be surprising considering Whisenhunt's Tennessee Titans ranked 28th in plays per game last season. The Saints rank sixth in plays per game in 2016, after ranking fourth last season.

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers

FanDuel Price: $7,600

Melvin Gordon finds himself in a terrific spot this week against New Orleans, who ranks dead last in Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play this season, after ranking as the seventh-worst run defense in 2015, according to our metrics.

Gordon also is playing as a four-point favorite for the team with the highest implied team total. As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."

Gordon played a career-high 87% of the offensive snaps in Week 3 and should continue to fill the bell-cow role for a high-scoring San Diego offense in Week 4. Perhaps even more exciting is the fact that he saw 7 of 11 running back targets last week, which made him the second-most targeted player for San Diego. Even at his bloated salary, Gordon is a terrific play with the projected game script against New Orleans' weak defense.

Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

FanDuel Price: $5,300

Michael Thomas stepped into a larger role for New Orleans in Week 3 with Willie Snead out -- playing 89% of the offensive snaps, leading the team with 11 targets and finishing the day with 7 catches for 71 yards and a touchdown. Snead has already put in a limited practice this week, so there is some optimism that he could return to the lineup, which would obviously put a damper on Thomas' outlook.

However, Thomas should remain involved regardless of Snead's status due to Brandin Cooks' matchup. Cooks is likely to be blanketed by Jason Verrett as he was by Desmond Trufant last week, when he caught just 2 of 8 targets for 13 yards. With Cooks dealing with shadow coverage last week, Brandon Coleman saw eight targets as the third receiver.

Thomas also makes for a fine pairing with Gordon or any other Charger you choose to roster as part of a game stack. If you expect the game script to play out how Vegas sees, New Orleans should be playing from behind in a shootout -- a scenario that could result in fantasy goodness for Drew Brees and their passing attack.

Others to Consider

Travis Benjamin is certainly in play once again this week, although the fact that he saw just seven targets last week is somewhat troubling. Tyrell Williams is an intriguing play, as well, but game script may not favor him in this one if San Diego does end up playing with the lead.

For New Orleans, Mark Ingram draws a dream matchup and has seen his FanDuel price drop to $6,800. The Chargers allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season and haven't fared much better this year, allowing the 10th-most. They ranked as the second-worst run defense, according to our metrics, in 2015 and rank sixth-worst Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play this season.

One big concern with Ingram is that he has been in for just 49.5% of the offensive snaps this season and has yet to top 15 carries in a game. However, with a healthy 4.6 yards per carry on the season,he should be able to find success on the ground against San Diego.