Week 4 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Washington vs. Cleveland Browns
Over/Under: 45.50
Redskins Implied Team Total: 27.50
Browns Implied Team Total: 18.00
This game's over/under isn't near the top of the list, but Washington's implied team total of 27.5, the second-highest of the week, is certainly an attention grabber. So, how can we take advantage of their potential offensive explosion this week against the Cleveland Browns' lackluster defense?
Matt Jones, RB, Washington Redskins
FanDuel Price: $6,600
After a very inefficient 2015, Matt Jones has been better so far this season, ranking eighth in Rushing NEP per play and third in Success Rate among running backs with at least 20 carries. At this point in his career, though, we don't target Jones for his talent. The matchup has to be just right, as it is this week against Cleveland.
As referenced earlier, running backs for winning teams averaged nearly eight carries and 6.5 more fantasy points per game from 2013 to 2015, which sets up well for Jones, the bell-cow running back for the team with the largest spread (-9.5) on the slate. The Browns ranked as the fourth-worst run defense in 2015, according to our metrics, and haven't looked much better this season. Despite facing three lackluster rushing attacks -- Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and Miami Dolphins -- the Browns have given up 109 rushing yards per game.
Jones should be part of Washington reaching their 27.5-point implied team total, and if they do, he should be the one running down the clock as they play with a lead.
Washington D/ST
FanDuel Price: $4,600
Cody Kessler looked more competent than most of us expected in Week 3, but that may have been in large part due to Miami's own incompetency. This week, he'll have a much tougher time against Washington's defense, which ranks in the top-12 in quarterback hurries, sacks and interceptions this season.
In addition to being a great stand-alone play, Washington D/ST pairs nicely with Jones as a positively correlated stack. Per Raybon, when a D/ST scores 15 or more FanDuel points, the team's running back gets a slight bump, scoring 25-plus FanDuel points at a 9.3-percent clip compared to their 6.6-percent rate in all games. If you project Cleveland to struggle to score like Vegas does (third-lowest implied team total), you should expect a large workload for Jones as well.
Others to Consider
If you're a Kirk Cousins truther, Week 4 offers a beautiful chance to buy-low on him on FanDuel, where he is the 13th-most expensive quarterback and won't be highly owned. Against a Cleveland defense that has allowed Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco and Ryan Tannehill to average 300 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns, Cousins should be productive. Cousins is performing better than most give him credit for, ranking ninth in Passing NEP per drop back among passers with at least 30 drop backs.
Terrelle Pryor lined up all over the field and finished with a very entertaining 144 receiving yards, 35 passing yards, 21 rushing yards and a score. His price has spiked to $7,000, though, which makes him hard to recommend as anything other than a tournament play with Cleveland projected for just 18 points.
