Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 4

Avoid Todd Gurley as an Underdog

He may have stumbled out of the gate in the first two weeks of the season, but Todd Gurley came alive and scored 20.8 half-PPR points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3.

Los Angeles Rams fans were probably partying after seeing Gurley playing like his normal self, but as Kanye says, please, baby, no more parties in L.A.

It's time to pump the brakes on Gurley as he heads into a daunting matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is favored to win the game by 7.5 points, tied for the highest spread of the week.

Gurley has not fared well as an underdog in his young career. According to the Rotoviz Game Splits App, Gurley has only averaged 11.7 half-PPR points per game when the Rams were underdogs of 7 or more points.

The Rams have played in very low-scoring games since 2015, going over the projected Vegas total only 5 times in 19 games. The total for this game opened at 44 points and has already crept down to 42.5 points. The Rams have the lowest implied total of the week at 17.75 points.

He is priced at $7,700, the sixth-highest among running backs, and may have a difficult time delivering value at that salary.