Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 4

Start the Vikings' Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible so they can begin taking bets. For Week 4, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. These lines are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side, etc.

For those of you including Monday Night Football in your daily fantasy football schedule this weekend, you may want to start the Minnesota D/ST.

Pinnacle Sports opened this game on Sunday, September 25th with the Minnesota Vikings being favored by 3.5 points. The over/under for the game opened at 44 points. Since then, the line has risen to the Vikes being favored by 5 points. The total has also dropped half of a point to 43.5 points.

The implied total for the New York Giants is only 19 points, which is the 4th lowest on the weekend slate. It's also worth noting just how successful the Vikings have been lately.

According to Team Rankings, since 2015, the Vikings have gone a league-best 17-3 against the spread. The fact that they have covered the spread in 85% of their games since 2015 is unbelievable. Another trend going in their defense's favor is that their record in game totals is 5-14-1 since 2015. This means that only 5 of their games have gone over the Vegas total and 14 stayed under.

The Minnesota D/ST is the seventh-most expensive defense on FanDuel and costs $4,700, but the unit is well worth the price tag.