The 10 Most Impactful Plays of Week 4

​Honorable Mentions

So what is NEP? By adding down-and-distance value to standard box score information, we can see just how much each play and each team as a whole influence the outcome of games. If a player passes for five yards on 3rd-and-2, it means more to the game than it does on 3rd-and-10, and those plays should be valued accordingly. For more info on NEP, check out our glossary.

Each play has an NEP value. Each play also changes the win probability (WP) of the game. I factored those values together to see which plays were the most impactful to the moment on the field and the game as a whole.

Below were some exciting moments from Week 4 with big value swings in one category but didn’t cut it in the other.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles zips a short pass to wide receiver Allen Hurns, who weaves through the defense for a 42-yard touchdown (WP: 15.20, NEP: 4.71).
9. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith tosses a first-quarter interception to Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Jarvis Jones (WP: 10.76, NEP: 6.34).
8. San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers floats the ball over double-coverage, and wide receiver Dontrelle Inman races into the end zone, 57 yards downfield (WP: 12.86, NEP: 5.24).
7. Miami Dolphins wide receiver Kenny Stills gets well behind the defense, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill hits him for 74 and a score (WP: 11.45, NEP: 6.11).
6. Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco pumps a bullet pass to wide receiver Steve Smith, who stiff-arms two defenders on his way to a 52-yard touchdown (WP: 17.52, NEP: 4.88).

Now onto the top-five plays of the week!