Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 5

Start Tom Brady as a Double-Digit Road Favorite

The New England Patriots are currently favored by 10.5 points on the road versus the Cleveland Browns. This game is set to feature the first double-digit road favorite of 2016.

Why is that significant?

According to Sporting Charts, from 2000-2013, double-digit road favorites went 26-41 against the spread for a cover percentage of only 38%. Usually, you will want to target a quarterback that is expected to play in a close game where he is forced to pass throughout the game. Using historical data, we can see that the majority of these games ended up being closer than expected.

To further back our confidence in Brady, let's use the Rotoviz Game Splits App to see how Brady had performed as a double-digit road favorite during his career. In nine career games in this scenario, Brady has averaged 24.41 fantasy points per game. His career average in all games is 21.93 fantasy points per game.

Brady is an expensive $8,700 on FanDuel, ranking 3rd among quarterbacks. He has a safe floor with the upside of the top quarterback of the week.