5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 5
Denver Broncos Rushing Offense
The last few weeks have not been particularly kind to C.J. Anderson. Since his big night in Week 1, he has a combined 53 carries for 160 yards, good for a whopping 3.02 yards per carry. This has pushed him all the way down to 28th in Rushing NEP per carry of the 35 backs with at least 30 carries.
That wouldn't seem to inspire a whole lot of confidence in him entering Week 5, but there are reasons we should love him against the Atlanta Falcons.
In the Denver Broncos' first four games, they've faced three teams that are currently in the top 10 against the rush, according to numberFire's metrics. Two of those games against top-10 opponents came on the road, a spot where we generally expect less production from our running backs. Basically, he wasn't in situations that generally breed success, and it shined through in his statlines.
That all changes this week. Not only are the Broncos at home and favored by 5.5 points, but they'll be seeing a much more lax rush defense in Atlanta. They rank 22nd against the run, and Anderson has everything he needs to succeed in this situation.
Because of these inefficiencies, opposing running backs have fared well against the Falcons in fantasy. They have allowed a top-20 scorer at the position every week, and Charles Sims was just two spots from adding a fifth in Week 1. This is both due to difficulties stopping the rush and an inability to cover backs out of the backfield, and it should get us interested in Anderson.
Our preseason concerns around Anderson were that the offense overall wouldn't be effective under the command of Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, but that hasn't been the case. They're 12th in Adjusted Passing NEP per play this year, and the Falcons are 27th against the pass. This team will generate scoring drives, boosting the value of Anderson, who is third in the league in red-zone rushing attempts this season.
This endorsement of Anderson is one that would stick regardless of who's under center for the Broncos. Siemian ranks sixth among qualified passers in Success Rate, and Lynch's Passing NEP per drop back was higher against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers than where Siemian's clip is at for the season. It seems as if the team's roster is one that can support both guys, and that's good news for Anderson.
