Fantasy Football: 4 Things We Learned From Week 5
Alshon Jeffery Owners Should Worry
It's official, y'all. Alshon Jeffery owners have every reason to be frustrated.
But let's be clear. Their frustration shouldn't be directed at Jeffery himself. He's still a baller.
Looking deeper into the analytics helps confirm that. At numberFire, we use our signature in-house metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), to determine a players' on-field performance above or below expectation utilizing historical data in identical down-and-distance scenarios. You can learn more about NEP by checking out our glossary.
| Receptions | Reception NEP | Targets | Reception NEP per Target | Catch Rate | Reception Success Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 24 | 30.47 | 48 | 0.63 | 50.00% | 91.67% |
| 2013 | 89 | 117.41 | 149 | 0.79 | 59.73% | 85.39% |
| 2014 | 85 | 105.26 | 145 | 0.73 | 58.62% | 88.24% |
| 2015 | 54 | 74.44 | 94 | 0.79 | 57.45% | 88.89% |
| 2016 | 22 | 29.69 | 31 | 0.96 | 70.97% | 95.45% |
In terms of efficiency and overall effectiveness, Jeffery is besting his career numbers in just about every metric. Jeffrey's Success Rate -- the percentage of his catches that positively contribute to NEP -- is at a career high. His 0.96 Reception NEP per target far outpaces his best season as a pro thus far.
The problem is he just isn't getting enough targets, which is the key building block for fantasy football success. And the fact that he's only led his team in targets one game this season is, well, crazy.
Through the first five games, Jeffery has been out-targeted in the red zone by three other Chicago Bears' players, including Kevin White, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller.
Through four weeks, White had out-targeted Jeffery 36 to 25 despite registering an awful 0.28 Reception NEP per target, which is 3.4 times less efficient than Jeffery had been through four games. But when White went down in Week 4, we all thought Jeffery's time was coming.
Brian Hoyer disagreed, and directed 12 targets Cameron Meredith's way in Week 5 compared to Jeffery's 6. Despite that target gulf, Jeffery's 5.64 Reception NEP, which is a cumulative metric, in Week 5 nearly matched Meredith's 6.34 Reception NEP.
Perhaps the Bears will figure out that in order to win games, they ought to lean on their best player more frequently. And if your fantasy football team is currently struggling, now could be a good buy-low opportunity in hopes that they do.
But at this point, there is no guarantee that that happens.
