Week 6 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Over/Under: 53.0
Saints Implied Team Total: 25.25
Panthers Implied Team Total: 27.75
This game easily features the highest over/under on the slate, which isn't surprising considering it features two of the bottom-11 scoring defenses in the league. The New Orleans Saints have given up a league-worst 32.5 points per game, while the Carolina Panthers rank 22nd in scoring defense, allowing 27 points per game. This game should be one of the fastest-paced games of the weekend too, as both teams rank in the top-six in offensive plays per game. No team has seen more total plays per game during their contests than the Saints.
Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
FanDuel Price: $8,900
Cam Newton appears to be a full-go for this week's flow-chart matchup against the Saints this week, who have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game this season (301), while also ranking sixth in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play this season. In two matchups against this defense in 2015, Newton averaged 323 passing yards, 3.5 passing touchdowns, and an absurd 32.8 FanDuel points.
Newton has also fared well in similar game scripts to this in the past. Since the beginning of last season, Newton has averaged more passing attempts and 0.9 more passing touchdowns in games the Panthers were at least 3-point favorites as they are this week. He hasn't played in any games with a 53-point over/under in that span, but he has seen a considerable boost in production when playing in projected shootouts, as evidenced by his splits, via the Rotoviz Game Splits App.
This game should be an up-tempo shootout, and Newton should have no trouble putting up huge numbers against the dreadful New Orleans defense. His price tag is restrictive, but he has the highest projected point total among the quarterbacks on the slate.
Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $7,500
After a hot start to the season, Cooks has struggled in back-to-back weeks. A large part of that may be that he had to deal with the shadow coverage of Desmond Trufant and Jason Verrett.
Week 6 provides a perfect bounce-back opportunity, as he returns to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, where he has played much better in his career. Since the beginning of 2014, Cooks has averaged 5.7 catches, 77 yards, and 15.3 FanDuel points at home, as opposed to 4.7 catches, 52 yards, and 9.6 FanDuel points on the road. In eight home games that the Saints have played with at least a 50-point over/under since 2014, Cooks has seen those averages climb to 5.5 catches, 87 yards, and 17.1 FanDuel points.
In addition playing at home with an excellent game script, Cooks will have much easier individual matchups this week against Carolina's less-than-intimidating group of corners. In the past two weeks, the Panthers have allowed opposing number-one receivers (Julio Jones and Mike Evans to be fair) to average 9 catches, 195 yards, and 1 touchdown against them.
Pairing Cooks with Newton makes a lot of sense from a correlation perspective, too, as opposing number-one receivers are the second-most highly correlated position with a high-scoring quarterback performance, per Raybon's article on stacking.
Others to Consider
Speaking of correlation, both Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen are fine pairing options with Newton. Benjamin hasn't been as effective following two big performances to open the season, but he draws an awesome matchup against the Saints. In addition to regularly giving up big performances to opposing passing games, just one of New Orleans five regulars in the secondary are taller than 6'0", which bodes well for the the 6'5" Benjamin. The Saints have defended tight ends well this season, but they've also faced Hunter Henry, Jacob Tamme, Larry Donnell, and Clive Walford. In 2015, they allowed the most points to opposing tight ends, including two monster games to Olsen. In their two meetings last season, Olsen put up 17 catches for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns.
