Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 7

Avoid the Falcons Defense Because of Line Movement

What is line movement? Well, during the NFL season, bookmakers usually post a spread with a total as early as possible so they can begin taking bets. For Week 7, these lines were posted as early as Sunday night and have since been adjusted. These lines are adjusted in the following hours and days due to transactions, injuries, weather reports, large bets on one side -- any number of things.

On Sunday night, the total for the Atlanta Falcons home game against the San Diego Chargers opened at 50.5 points. Since then, it has risen 2.5 points to 53. Back in March, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the line rose 2 points or more, the average defensive score was only 6.28 fantasy points per game, which was less than the league average of 7.44 points per game in 2015.

From that same article, I noted that defenses involved in games with a total of 49.5 or more points only scored an average of 6.69 points per game. The total of 53 points is the highest total for the entire weekend slate.

The ATLiens defense is priced at $4,500, ninth among defenses on FanDuel. They are favored to win by 6.5 points and seem like a trendy pick in a weekend where defensive streamers are tough to find, but the trends regarding a game with such a high total indicate that avoiding them would be the safe play.