Fantasy Football: 3 Passing Games to Avoid for the Playoffs
Green Bay Packers
Week 14: vs. Seattle
Week 15: at Chicago
Week 16: vs. Minnesota
The Green Bay Packers have two extremely difficult matchups in the fantasy playoffs sandwiched around a decently attractive clash with the Chicago Bears.
The Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks are two of the best defenses in football. In fact, per our metrics, Minnesota has the best defense in the NFL while Seattle checks in fourth. The Vikings and Seahawks are third and fifth, respectively, in schedule-adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play. And even though the Bears' defense isn't on that level -- our metrics rate them 17th in overall defense -- it'll be an outdoor game at Soldier Field in the middle of December, so weather could be an issue.
These matchups dim the prospects for everyone in Green Bay's passing game -- even the great Aaron Rodgers. Minnesota is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks while Seattle is surrendering the sixth-fewest.
Over the past two seasons, Rodgers has had some trouble with the Vikings, tossing just four touchdowns with three picks against Minnesota.
| Year | Completions | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns | Interceptions | Fantasy Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 16 | 34 | 212 | 2 | 1 | 19.08 |
| 2015 | 28 | 44 | 291 | 1 | 1 | 12.84 |
| 2016 | 20 | 36 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 17.42 |
He is averaging just 16.5 fantasy points per game in his last three meetings with the Vikes. Minnesota stymied Rodgers in their matchup earlier this year, but he was able to post a respectable fantasy output thanks to a rushing touchdown.
Next week may be a really good time to sell him, too. After lighting up the Bears in Week 7, Rodgers should put up some more gaudy numbers Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons in a game where the Packers have an implied total of 24.75. If he does, his value will be shooting upwards.
As for Jordy Nelson, Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb, the Vikings are giving up the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, and Seattle is allowing the seventh-fewest. So they're in less-than-desirable spots, as well, although Montgomery could be an exception if he's still seeing work as a running back.
