5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 9
Dallas Cowboys Passing Offense
If you watched Sunday night's game between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, you probably came away with a bad taste in your mouth about Dak Prescott. He largely underwhelmed, and if it weren't for a game-winning drive in overtime, we'd likely be viewing Dak in a different light.
From an analytics standpoint, though, it was actually another impressive performance for the rookie once you qualify for his opponent.
There are seven quarterbacks who have started a game against the Eagles this year. Only three of those have finished with a positive Passing NEP per dropback, and only one of them out-paced Prescott's mark of 3.66. That was Matthew Stafford at 4.96. Basically, this defense (numberFire's top-ranked unit against the pass) swallows all beauty that comes near it, and Prescott wasn't half bad relative to his peers.
His matchup eases up just a wee bit this week.
Instead of facing the No. 1 pass defense in the league, he'll be going up against the 30th-ranked Cleveland Browns. What could Dak do against them?
The Cowboys are seven-point favorites over the Browns, which may lead you to believe that they will simply pump Ezekiel Elliott with carries until his legs can churn no more. Elliott's the top running back on the board this week, so that's a valid thought, but this likely won't be a game where the Cowboys can simply coast.
First, both Josh McCown and Cody Kessler have been efficient quarterbacks this season, meaning they have the ability to generate scoring drives. McCown is sixth in Passing NEP per dropback of the 34 quarterbacks with at least 85 dropbacks, and Kessler is 11th. No matter who starts, it'll be a competent option.
They could be in an even better spot this week with the Cowboys' defense ailing. Both Morris Claiborne and Barry Church will miss the game due to injury, so this Browns offense will be able to score points. And thus, even though 80% of public bets are on the Cowboys, according to The Spread, the line has not moved in Dallas' favor. This likely indicates that some heavy money is being put on the Browns to cover, legitimizing the thought that this won't be a cake walk.
While Elliott should absolutely be on your rosters if you can afford him, Prescott's worth a look if you're in the quest for differentiation.
Based on what he did in his first game back, Dez Bryant would be a worthy stack candidate with Prescott. Bryant played 88.5% of the snaps, netting 14 of the team's 40 targets. He caught only four of those, but again, that was against the best pass defense in the league.
Even without the benefit of heavy volume, opposing wide receivers have gone bonkers against the Browns. There are five players who have topped 110 receiving yards, and three of them did so with fewer than 10 targets. Bryant's capable of hitting that mark, and he's worth the increased price tag here.
