Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 10

Start Carson Wentz Because of a High Total

Rookie quarterbacks tend to go through some trials and tribulations while adjusting to the skill level in the NFL. Carson Wentz has struggled recently, throwing only two touchdowns over his last four starts. We may hesitate to start a player performing so badly, but the trends point to his having a good game.

The Philadelphia Eagles play at home versus the Atlanta Falcons in a game where the spread is set at zero. Bookmakers expect this game to come down to the wire. This game also has the second-highest total of the weekend at 50 points. The Eagles' implied total is 25 points.

Wentz has not played in a game with a total of 50 points this season. The highest total he played in was 47 points and that was when he lit up the Pittsburgh Steelers for 21 fantasy points. Wentz will likely be forced to throw more in a game against the the Falcons.

Falcons games have gone over the total in eight out of nine games, the highest ratio in the league. This is partially because of their porous pass defense, which ranks 29th in the league against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted metrics.

Because of his volatility, I would not recommend Wentz as a cash game play. But at $6,800 on FanDuel, 25th in price among quarterbacks, he makes for a cheap option with high upside for use in tournaments.