Week 10 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins

Over/Under: 48.5
Chargers Implied Team Total: 26.25
Dolphins Implied Team Total: 22.25

This matchup between the San Diego Chargers and Miami Dolphins features a 48.5-point over/under, which is the fourth-highest on the slate. San Diego's 26.25-point implied team total is the fifth-highest on the slate, which should come as no surprise considering they've averaged 34 points in four home games this season. Also, both teams rank in the top-12 in the league in both opponent pace and opponent plays per game, so this game should be a quick-paced back and forth affair.

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers

FanDuel Price: $8,300

Melvin Gordon has been the definition of a workhorse this season, averaging 25.9 touches game following the ACL injury to Danny Woodhead, with a prominent role in the passing game too, boasting four games with at least seven targets. What makes Gordon a truly unique fantasy asset is his usage in the red zone. He easily leads the league in red zone carries with 46 (over five per game), and his 14 carries from inside the five-yard line ranks first as well. He is also one of just three backs to account for 100 percent of his team's carries from inside the five-yard line. He's also seen seven targets in the red zone, and his two red zone receiving touchdowns rank second for the Chargers. All 11 of his touchdowns have come in the red zone this season -- a number that leads the NFL.

Well, his usage makes him an awesome week-to-week play, but what makes him an elite play this week is how game script sets up for him. In four games the Chargers have won this season, Gordon has averaged an absurd 29.5 touches for 149 yards from scrimmage. The Chargers have shown the tendency to feed Gordon when playing with the lead, most recently giving him 36 touches for 261 scrimmage yards last week against what was thought to be a tough Tennessee Titans run defense.

While it may be easy to dismiss those numbers based on the small sample size, history suggests there may be some validity to the developing trend. As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."

The fact that the Chargers are projected for 26.25 points is icing on the cake for the best touchdown maker in the NFL, as Gordon has averaged 1.7 touchdowns in the six games San Diego has put up at least 27 points this season.

If San Diego gets up early, there's a good shot Gordon has a hand in the scoring. If they are able to play with a lead as expected, he should be heavily involved in the game plan. Against a Miami defense ranked fifth-worst in Adjusted (for strength of schedule) Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play this season, he should have no problem finding success on the ground.

Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers

FanDuel Price: $8,100

All the attention will be focused on Gordon in this game, but the game script sets up well for a productive game from Philip Rivers as well. Since the beginning of 2014, Rivers has performed better when playing in shootouts, as this game is projected to be. He has averaged 41.5 pass attempts and 314 passing yards in games with at least a 48.5-point over/under during that span, as opposed to 36.8 attempts and 274 yards in all other games, per the RotoViz Game Splits App. Rivers has performed much better when the Chargers have won by at least four points, which is what they are favored by this week, as evidenced by his splits below.

Pairing Rivers with Gordon is a nice way to split the chalk on Gordon as well, as there won't be many FanDuel lineups using both. All 26 of San Diego's offensive touchdowns have come from either Rivers or Gordon this season, so if you expect the Chargers to put up a big score on Miami, pairing the two makes a lot of sense.

Others to Consider

Jay Ajayi has averaged 176 rushing yards over his past three games and is fresh off of a 20.5 FanDuel point performance against the stout run defense of the New York Jets. He easily leads the league in yards per carry (6.0), Rushing Success Rate (52.8 percent), and Rushing NEP per play (0.27). The dude is legit. This week, he takes on a Chargers run defense that is much improved from last season (3.8 yards per attempt allowed as opposed to 4.8 in 2015), but has still allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs, largely due to the 13 touchdowns they've allowed to the position in nine games.

However, all three of his recent monster performances have come in Miami wins. If you expect San Diego to control this game, there's a decent shot Ajayi doesn't get handed the rock 25.7 times per game like he has over the past three contests.