Market Share Report: Le'Veon Bell's Big Day Shall Come
Carry Market Shares
1. Tim Hightower Edges Mark Ingram
Mark Ingram went off the chain in Sunday's win for the New Orleans Saints over the San Francisco 49ers. He found the end zone twice, racking up 171 yards from scrimmage on just 17 touches. We should be excited about this big of a rebound after his Week 8 benching.
His usage relative to that of Tim Hightower, though, leaves things a bit foggier.
Hightower out-carried Ingram, 23 to 15, and out-snapped him, 37-33. Obviously, these aren't huge gaps, and Ingram's production towered over Hightower's, but we can't simply ignore this. The Saints won't always be able to run the ball 40 times against the league's worst rush defense and fastest-paced offense. When the volume goes down, who will get the majority of the work?
It's even a bit more troubling for Ingram how much of his work came in garbage time. Seven of his 15 carries came after the team had a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter, a time period that included only 5 of Hightower's 23 carries. Early on, it was Hightower's backfield, and Ingram carried the banner once things were out of hand.
It's possible that Ingram's stout performance will swing the pendulum back in his favor. But until we see that happen, it's going to be hard to fully trust him in both season-long and DFS.
2. The Sky Is Not Falling on Devontae Booker... Yet
There are multiple ways to interpret what happened to Devontae Booker in Week 9. First, you can look at his production and vomit. Second, you can look at your bankroll after investing in him in DFS and vomit again. Yes, I am with you, wallowing in those stomach-acidy waters.
The third angle, though, is that his usage really wasn't that bad. For that game, at least.
Booker controlled 10 of the Denver Broncos' 12 running-back carries with the other two going to Kapri Bibbs. Booker also had three targets compared to one for Bibbs while playing 82% of the snaps. From a usage standpoint, this was solid across the board. But with Bibbs' production -- including a 69-yard touchdown reception -- that doesn't necessarily mean things will stay that way.
RB Devontae Booker took 46 of 56 offensive snaps vs. OA;. Kapri Bibbs had 9. Ratio figures to change in Bibbs' favor vs. NO. #9sports
— Mike Klis (@MikeKlis) November 7, 2016
Booker's headed for another cake matchup in Week 10 against the Saints. If he gets the same market share and snap rate he had in Week 9, you'd assume he'd bounce back in a big way. That warrants some investment on tournament rosters for DFS, but we'll definitely need to monitor how this backfield shakes out in the future.
3. Terrance West Loses Work to Kenneth Dixon
No matter how many opportunities he has had, Terrance West has never fully grasped the Baltimore Ravens' starting running back job. Now, it seems as if his window to lock it down for good may have passed.
West handled just 15 of 25 running-back carries, ceding nine of those to rookie Kenneth Dixon. It was a step back for West, who recorded 8 of the 10 running-back carries in their game before the bye despite suffering an injury early on. Week 9's outing came with a 41% snap rate, further legitimizing concerns that West's stock is declining.
The Ravens get a dream matchup against the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night in which Baltimore is a heavy favorite. That's a spot where West can flash his talent and potentially snag some of his workload back. But from a fantasy perspective, even in the best situation imaginable, our outlook for West should be tempered.
