Fantasy Football: 3 Running Games to Avoid for the Playoffs

Miami Dolphins

Week 14: vs. Arizona
Week 15: at New York Jets
Week 16: at Buffalo

Jay Ajayi has become the centerpiece of the Miami Dolphins' offense, getting 70.91% of the team's carries over the past three games and accounting for 28.15% of Miami's total opportunities -- rushing attempts and passing-game targets -- in that span.

He's getting that much work because he's been one of the best backs in the NFL. In fact, according to our in-house Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, he's been the best. Among running backs to see at least 60 carries this year, he ranks first in Rushing NEP per attempt.

This is the part where I tell you about his rough playoff schedule, so here goes.

All three of the Dolphins' opponents from Week 14 to Week 16 rank among the top-10 run defenses, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. The New York Jets sit 6th while the Buffalo Bills and Arizona Cardinals are 8th and 10th, respectively. The Cards have allowed the 5th-fewest fantasy points to running backs, although the good real-life defense of the Bills (17th-fewest) and Jets (18th-fewest) haven't been too detrimental to fantasy runners.

Ajayi has a decent matchup this week against a San Diego Chargers defense that's solid but has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to backs. Depending on when your trade deadline is, you may be able to take advantage of the Week 10 matchup before selling-high on Ajayi. Or, you could use the allure of his recent surge and the favorable clash with the Bolts to jack up the asking price in a deal this week.