Fantasy Football: 3 Things We Learned From Week 10
Ty Montgomery's Role Is Receding
Ty Montgomery has been one of the best waiver wire gems of the season based on his last two weeks of service with the Green Bay Packers. After starting running back Eddie Lacy landed on Injured Reserve after hurting his ankle and their backup, James Starks, suffered a torn meniscus that left him shelved for four weeks, Montgomery's emergence was borne out of necessity.
While technically listed as a wide receiver for the team, Montgomery spent the majority of his snaps in Weeks 7 and 9 lined up in the backfield -- while out with an illness in Week 8 -- leading the Packers' rushing game.
And using our in-house metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), we can show just how well Montgomery delivered. NEP measures player performance above-or-below expectation using down-and-distance based on historical performance in identical scenarios. You can learn more about NEP by checking out our glossary.
| Rushing NEP | Rushing NEP/P | Success Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery Week 7 & 9 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 43.75% |
| League Average RB | N/A | -0.01 | 40.71% |
On his 16 carries in Weeks 7 and 9, Montgomery proved to be a more than capable back for the Packers, registering above-league-average efficiency, measured by Rushing NEP per rush. He also consistently moved the chains, judging by his more than respectable 43.75% Rushing Success Rate, which is the percentage of rushes that positively contribute to NEP.
But Montgomery's opportunities dwindled in Week 10 as Starks returned from injury. It was fair to wonder whether Starks would return to any kind of role given Montgomery's success. For his part, Starks had registered an abysmal -12.23 Rushing NEP on just 24 attempts prior to going down to injury. But he was still entrusted with the majority of the Packers' backfield touches in Week 10, leaving only three attempts for Montgomery.
With Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams all healthy, Montgomery's fantasy relevancy depends on getting touches out of the running back position. And after Sunday, it appears like that relevancy is receding.
