Week 11 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans
Over/Under: 52.5
Colts Implied Team Total: 27.75
Titans Implied Team Total: 24.75
The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans face off this weekend at Lucas Oil Stadium, and based on their defensive performances this season, it should come as no surprise that the 52.5-point over/under is the highest on the slate. Both Indy (3rd-worst) and Tennessee (11th-worst) rank near the bottom of the league in Adjusted (for strength of schedule) Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play this season.
Indy's games have featured the sixth-most total plays per game too, so this should be an uptempo and high-scoring affair. There are several interesting ways to attack this game on both sides of the ball, making it one of the premier game-stacking options.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Price: $8,100
Andrew Luck and Indy's passing game gets a terrific matchup against a Tennessee secondary that has given up more FanDuel points per game to opposing passers over the past five weeks than any other team. During that span, they've allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 336 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. What's truly impressive about their horrendous defensive play during that time is the fact that two of the five quarterbacks were Cody Kessler and Blake Bortles.
In addition to a beautiful matchup, this game sets up quite well for Luck from a game script perspective. For starters, this game will be played in Indy, where he has played better historically. Since the beginning of 2014, Luck has averaged 296 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns at home, as opposed to 280 yards and 2.1 touchdowns, per the RotoViz Game Splits App. He's also performed better in projected shootouts, averaging 291 yards and 2.4 touchdowns on 39.6 passing attempts per game when playing in games with at least a 50-point over/under since 2014. He's also excelled when listed as at least a 3-point favorite (what Indy is listed as this week), averaging 307 yards and 2.6 touchdowns.
Also worth noting is that Tennessee's funnel defense has resulted in opponents posting a 1.9 pass-to-run ratio, which is the second-highest in the league. They've been stout against the run and incapable of defending the pass, which has led to opponents attempting 38.6 pass attempts per game -- the third-most in the league. Opponents really seem to have figured out how to attack Tennessee, as the past five teams to face them have attempted 44.4 passes per game.
Luck should see heavy volume in a game that is projected to remain close and high-scoring, and given Tennessee's recent struggles against the pass, it wouldn't be surprising to see him post a monster game.
Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts
FanDuel Price: $6,500
Donte Moncrief has scored a touchdown in every full game he's played this season and has now scored eight times in his past 11 games with Luck under center. The 6'2" athletic specimen has carved out a large role for himself in the red zone, accounting for 29.4 percent of Luck's red zone pass attempts in the three games he was healthy. He's also been targeted on four of Luck's seven pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line during that those games.
In a game in which the Colts should go with a pass-heavy approach and are expected to score nearly four touchdowns, Moncrief's red zone usage gives him as much touchdown upside as anyone this week. A Luck-Moncrief stack is squarely in play in what is likely to turn into a shootout.
Others to Consider
T.Y. Hilton hasn't been as involved in the red zone for Indy, but he has averaged 10 targets and has six games with double-digit targets. His price ($7,900) makes him harder to pair with Luck, but his upside makes it worth it. Hilton has three games with 130-plus yards and a score this season, including his last matchup with Tennessee, in which he went for 133 yards and a score on 7 catches. Our projections love Hilton this week, projecting him for the highest touchdown probability and the fourth-highest FanDuel point total among receivers.
On the Tennessee side of the ball, there are many different ways you can go. According to our Adjusted Defensive NEP per play metrics, Indy ranks third-worst against the pass and sixth-worst against the run. According to our "Trends" tool, no quarterback has been hotter than Marcus Mariota in his past five games, who has seen a 19.3 percent increase in his FanDuel points per game, averaging 23.6 FanDuel points -- the fourth-most among quarterbacks on this slate.
In 12 career games the Titans have lost by three or more points, Mariota has averaged 33 pass attempts, as opposed to 29 in all other games. If this game turns into a shootout, Mariota is likely to see an increase in volume and could have another huge performance against a weak Indianapolis defense. Game stacking Mariota with Moncrief or Hilton makes sense from a correlation perspective and helps you split the chalk on an Indy passing attack that should be popular.
DeMarco Murray has been an absolute workhorse for Tennessee this season, averaging 22.8 touches per game and being heavily involved in the red zone. He's fifth in the league red zone carries and is one of just two backs to account for 100 percent of his team's carries from inside the five-yard line. He also leads the Titans in red zone targets and has added two receiving touchdowns, giving him 10 on the year.
Our models love his combination of volume and red zone usage, projecting him for 23.8 FanDuel points, which makes him the best value at the running back position. Traditionally, we don't like to target running backs who are underdogs, but Murray has actually performed better in losses this season, averaging 21.4 FanDuel points in five losses, as opposed to 18.6 in five wins. Pairing him with Mariota makes sense, as the two have combined for over 39 FanDuel points in five of their past six games, with the sixth being a 36.9-point effort. Murray can also be paired with Indianapolis passing game options for a true game stack.
Delanie Walker has seen 20 targets over his past two games and has seen at least eight in five of his past seven games. The Colts have allowed the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing tight ends this season and the third-most over the past four weeks. Since the beginning of last season, Tennessee hasn't played in any games with a 50-point over/under, but in eight games with at least a 45-point over/under, Walker has performed much better. He's averaged 6.3 catches for 77 yards and 1 touchdown in those games, as opposed to 5.4 catches for 65 yards and 0.2 touchdowns in all other games. Walker is just another excellent way to attack this game.
