5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 11
Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense
Remember that cycle we were just talking about? The Indianapolis Colts know it all too well. Luckily for them, they're sitting prettier now than they have been pretty much the entire season.
Whether it has been the receivers or the offensive line, the Colts' offense just hasn't been able to stay healthy this year. Donte Moncrief got hurt in Week 2 and didn't return until Week 8. By that time, their talented left guard, Jack Mewhort, was out, and right tackle Joe Reitz got hurt the same week Moncrief returned.
Basically, the Colts have been treading water since Week 1, the only game this year in which both Moncrief and Mewhort played the entire contest. Even Mewhort was banged up entering that one and was listed as questionable with a knee injury. That will all change this week.
Mike Adams, Henry Anderson, Jack Mewhort all back at #Colts practice today. Expect all to be available Sunday. No sign of Kendall Langford.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) November 16, 2016
Reitz should be able to join them, as well, after passing concussion protocol Wednesday. They'll all be back just in time for a plus matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans currently sit 26th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Each of the past five quarterbacks to face them have thrown for at least 275 yards and 2 touchdowns. This includes mavens of efficiency Blake Bortles and Cody Kessler, who combined for 673 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions. It also includes Andrew Luck himself, and we worry about using a quarterback the second time he's facing an opponent in the same season, but the increasing health may help them overcome that.
Luck's efficiency metrics aren't the type we'd usually covet here because they truly have not been good overall. He ranks 25th in Passing NEP per drop back of the 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, right behind Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning. That's firmly not great, Bob. But things do look a lot rosier when Moncrief plays at least 50% of the snaps.
| Drop Backs | Passing NEP | Passing NEP per Drop Back | |
|---|---|---|---|
| With Moncrief | 252 | 2.94 | 0.01 |
| Without Moncrief | 128 | 18.2 | 0.14 |
In the only game that both Moncrief and Mewhort played, Luck gashed the Detroit Lions for 385 yards and 4 touchdowns, and he's got similar potential this week.
Your stacking decisions with Luck largely depend on how much salary you have to burn. T.Y. Hilton is a great choice due to his immense target load. He has at least eight targets this year in every game except for one, and that one exception was due to a hamstring injury he suffered during the game. Even with Moncrief active in Week 1, Hilton had 12 targets. Now that Hilton's an extra two weeks removed from his hamstring injury, he's ready to rock again.
Moncrief holds viability every week due to his ability to hit paydirt. He has five red zone targets in his three healthy games, and he has converted three of those into touchdowns. You could do a lot worse than that for $6,500 on FanDuel. Both of these guys have standalone value even if you're not stacking them with Luck, but it'll be hard to stay away from going all in on this offense now that they're finally healthy.
