Fantasy Football: 5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 12

Start Dan Carpenter as a Favorite

numberFire's Jim Sannes wrote a very useful article in January on how kickers performed based on measures such as Vegas spreads, implied totals, and favorites versus underdogs. Based on his findings, we need to target kickers on teams that are heavily favored, with implied team total as the tiebreaker.

In Week 12, there are no teams favored by 10 or more, but there are a few favored by more than a touchdown. We are targeting cheaply-priced kicker Dan Carpenter of the Buffalo Bills since the Bills are favored to win by 7.5 points.

Buffalo has the fifth-highest implied total of the weekend slate at 26.25 points. All four Buffalo home games have gone over the total this season. In those four games, Carpenter has averaged 7.5 fantasy points per game. According to Sannes, kickers on teams favored by 5 to 9.5 points scored an average of 8.74 points per game.

Carpenter has the upside of a top-five kicker and is priced at the FanDuel minimum of $4,500, making him a nice option for those who want to spend up at other positions.