5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
Arizona Cardinals Passing Offense
To say this has been a bad year for Carson Palmer would be akin to saying that Abraham Lincoln had seen better plays. Sometimes, it really just can't get any worse.
Palmer currently ranks 23rd in Passing NEP per drop back of the 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. This puts him one spot behind a weapon-less Tyrod Taylor and one spot ahead of the largely inept Ryan Tannehill. That's not company you're itching to keep if you're a guy with Palmer's resume.
What's even worse for Palmer is that it's not hard to see why he's struggling. The team lost left tackle Jared Veldheer for the season back in October, and Palmer has spent most of the past three games trying to unglue himself from the turf. When he hasn't been sacked, Palmer has battled a spat of interceptions that has seen him throw five picks over that same three-game span. Simply put, dude looks cooked.
This doesn't mean, though, that Palmer's struggles kill any fantasy relevancy the team may have. They're heading east for a bout with the Atlanta Falcons, and they could serve as the perfect get-right spot for Palmer and company.
The Falcons currently rank 24th against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. They have just six interceptions this year, the eighth-lowest mark in the league, and opposing quarterbacks have found success against them pretty much the entire season.
In the Falcons' 10 games this year, only twice has the opposing quarterback finished with negative Passing NEP. Both of those were rookies in Paxton Lynch and Carson Wentz. The opposing offense has thrown for at least 330 yards against them four times, and two of those included appearances from back-up quarterbacks in relief. As good as the Falcons' offense has been, their defense has been equally as far on the opposite end of the spectrum.
Perhaps most importantly for Palmer, a good chunk of these woes come from a lack of pass rush. The Falcons rank 22nd in Sack NEP per drop back, which measures the points opponents have lost due to sacks on a per-drop back basis. The Cardinals' big weakness right now is their offensive line, but if the Falcons can't get to the quarterback, Palmer could wind up having a solid day.
Nobody would blame you for being skittish about using Palmer (especially with Russell Wilson's price being in such close proximity on FanDuel), but you should still try to snag exposure to this matchup in the form of Larry Fitzgerald.
Through all of the injuries and benchings the rest of the receiver core has undergone in Arizona, Fitzgerald's usage has remained steady. He has a 26.4% target market share for the season, and it's 27.8% over the past five games. He adds in a 32.6% red-zone target market share to plop some ceiling onto his lofty floor, making him a highly desirable fantasy asset.
Fitzgerald will likely have to deal with talented cornerback Desmond Trufant in this game, but the sheer volume and the leverage of Fitzgerald's targets should help nullify that. There's also the outside chance that Trufant doesn't follow Fitzgerald into the slot, in which case Fitz could just explode.
If Trufant scares you too much, and you decide to go another route, John Brown is currently the only other palatable option on the team. He was second among wide receivers in snaps in Week 11 at 81%, though he still managed to see just four targets. Brown doesn't seem to be fully right coming off of his leg injuries earlier in the year, so it's likely best just to stick with Fitzgerald, but Brown's snap rate is at least high enough where he warrants consideration.
